Phillies vs. Mets MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Max Scherzer, New York Stay Hot Against Equally Scorching Division Rival? (Friday, August 12)
Adam Hunger/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Scherzer
- The Mets are huge home favorites in tonight's series opener against the rival Phillies.
- New York sends ace Max Scherzer to the mound, while Philadelphia will counter with Ranger Suarez.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Phillies vs. Mets Odds
| Phillies Odds | +180 |
| Mets Odds | -225 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Since losing their first two games out of the All-Star break, there has not been a hotter team in baseball than the New York Mets.
The Mets have won 15 of their last 17 games, including a sweep of the Cincinnati Reds this week. The Mets have also enjoyed the return of the game's best starting pitcher, Jacob DeGrom. The Mets ace struck out 12 in 5 2/3 innings his last time out against the Braves.
DeGrom will start Saturday's game, however, the Mets will send their other ace, Max Scherzer, to the mound tonight to face the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Mets are not the only hot team in the NL East. Thursday's loss to the Miami Marlins snapped a seven game win streak, but the Phillies have won 12 of its last 14 games overall. They now hold the second wild-card spot in the National League and are a game up on the San Diego Padres.
Though the NL East rivals have not met since May, the Mets have had the advantage this season. The Mets have won every series this season and hold a 9-3 record. Will the Mets continue its dominance over the Phillies on Friday?
Can Phillies Bats Get to Scherzer?
It has been a tale of two seasons for the Phillies in 2022. A 22-29 start led to the dismissal of manager Joe Girardi. Since then, Philadelphia is 40-20 and has maintained its level of play despite losing its star and 2021 NL MVP Bryce Harper. The Phillies have gotten their other stars to pick up the slack.
Rhys Hoskins has hit five of his 24 home runs this season in his last 15 games. Kyle Schwarber has four home runs and 10 runs batted in his last 15 games. He also is 4-for-11 with two home runs against Scherzer. Alec Bohm has been one of the hottest hitters in the NL over the last month. He is hitting .366 with four home runs, 20 runs batted in and a .941 OPS in his last 30 games.
Since the All-Star break, the Phillies are averaging 4.9 runs per game and have hit 28 home runs in 19 games since the break. However, runs may be at a premium for the Phillies tonight. While Schwarber hits Scherzer well and Bohm is 5-for-15 against him, Hoskins is 1-for-26 against Scherzer. J.T. Realmuto is just 7-for-58 against Scherzer. Schwarber may not even be able available tonight after suffering a calf strain against the Marlins.
Ranger Suarez will get the start for the Phillies and he is 8-5 with a 3.68 ERA on the year. In his last seven starts he has been even better, going 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA. Suarez holds LHB to a .207 opposing batting average while RHB hit .271 against him. Facing Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Starling Marte and Darin Ruf, he could run into some trouble.
Nobody Hotter Than Mets
It is hard to find a more well-rounded team than the Mets right now. Since the All-Star break, the Mets are hitting nearly .300 as a team, are averaging 5.63 runs per game and have hit 23 home runs in 19 games.
In that span, the Mets have a 3.18 team ERA. They have gotten strong outings from Scherzer, DeGrom, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson and Taijuan Walker. Additionally, closer Edwin Diaz has allowed just one run since May 27th.
Francisco Lindor has been a catalyst, hitting .350 with seven home runs and 24 runs batted and a 1.023 OPS in his last 30 games. He has also recorded a run in 13 consecutive games, totaling 16 in that span.
Alonso has four home runs and 13 runs batted in his last 15 games. He also has seven of his 29 home runs against LHP and a slightly higher OPS at .918 compared .896 against righties. Marte has gone cold in the last week, but he hits .322 against LHP this season. He is also 2-for-6 against Suarez.
Meanwhile Scherzer just turned 38 a few weeks ago, but he remains as dominant as ever. He is 8-2 with a 1.98 ERA and 120 strikeouts in 95 1/3 innings this season. Since returning from the IL, he has a 1.37 ERA in seven starts. He ranks in the 90th percentile or better in strikeout percentage, walk percentage and chase rate.
Phillies-Mets Pick
Down Schwarber in addition to already being without Harper, the Phillies will not generate much offense against Max Scherzer.
The Mets are rolling offensively as well. While Suarez does a good job of limiting hard contact, I see him having a difficult navigating the right-handed bats in the heart of the Mets lineup.
I expect the Mets to push a couple of runs against Suarez to give Scherzer some breathing room. I will be backing the Mets on the run line.
Pick: Mets -1.5 (+105)
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