Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Betting Odds, Picks: Expect Toronto to Dominate
Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images
- The Red Sox square off against the Blue Jays after losing by four runs on Monday.
- Nick Pivetta is heading to the hill for Boston, and he has been awful this season.
- Mike Ianniello breaks down the matchup and explains where the value lies.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds
|Red Sox Odds||+165|
|Blue Jays Odds||-195|
|Over/Under||7.5 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||7:07 p.m. ET|
The Red Sox are reeling a bit entering Tuesday, having lost five of their last six games. Last night, they were able to come back and tie the game 2-2 in the top of the eighth, just to give up a grand slam to Bo Bichette in the bottom of the eighth.
Boston is now 7-10, tied for the most losses in the American League and just a half-game ahead of Baltimore for last place in the AL East.
Toronto entered the season as the favorite to win the division, and not only sits atop the AL East, but currently holds the best record in the American League.
Tuesday will be the fifth meeting between these two teams in the last eight days. The Blue Jays have won three of the first four, but will they be able to keep that going?
Red Sox Need Pivetta to Improve
It has been a brutal start to the season for Nick Pivetta (RHP). He’s off to an 0-3 start with an ERA sitting over 10.00. Remarkably, his xERA is even higher at 15.88, the highest in the league by over seven runs. Pivetta has allowed at least four runs in each of his first three starts.
Opponents have a .458 wOBA against him, and his xwOBA is somehow even higher at .563, the highest in the entire league.
Pivetta’s velocity has dropped across the board and his curveball has been hammered to a .429 opponent batting average. He has struck out just 10 batters, while walking nine.
Boston’s offense is off to a bit of a slow start this season. They rank just 24th in wOBA and 26th in wRC+. The Red Sox have hit just 11 long balls all season, only three teams have hit fewer.
Xander Bogaerts has been terrific, but basically every other player has been inconsistent early this season.
Jays Maintaining Monster Offense
2021 was a breakout season for Kevin Gausman (RHP) in San Francisco. He went 14-6 with a 2.81 ERA and earned his first All-Star selection. Through his first three starts with Toronto, Gausman is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA and a brilliant 0.73 FIP.
Gausman has racked up 22 strikeouts this year — 15 of them have come off his splitter, which has been lethal. His splitter has a 46.9% Whiff% this year, the third highest for any pitch thrown in at least 25 plate appearances.
Toronto’s offense has been well balanced this year, ranking sixth in the league in team average while also leading the league with 25 home runs. The Jays are especially strong against right-handed pitchers, ranking eighth in both wOBA and wRC+.
Red Sox-Blue Jays Pick
Gausman faced the Red Sox just a week ago and was brilliant. He took a shutout into the ninth inning, and struck out eight Sox batters in the win.
No pitcher in the league has a better splitter than Gausman. He has the best run value in the league for a splitter — it is his third straight year with the games top split finger. In his entire career, opponents are batting just .179 against that pitch.
The Red Sox hit splitters worse than any team in the league. In his start last week against Boston, Gausman threw his splitter 28 times, allowing just one hit and racking up seven strikeouts.
On the other side, Pivetta has been horrific, and Toronto tagged him for five earned runs in just four innings last week. The current Blue Jays roster has a .329 average and .413 wOBA against Pivetta in his career.
Toronto has a big advantage in starting pitching, bullpen and on offense. A moneyline north of -180 is too big to lay, but I’m willing to lay the run line here — given how dramatic the starting pitching mismatch is — at anything plus money.
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 +118
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