MLB Odds & Picks for Red Sox vs. Yankees: New York Offense to Bounce Back?
Photo by Carlin Stiehl for The Boston Globe via Getty Images
- The Red Sox are streaking against the division-leading Yankees, but can they win yet again at Yankee Stadium?
- With two shaky pitchers taking the hill, the total could be in play, even though the Yankees' offense has struggled as of late.
- Kenny Ducey dives into the match and explains why he's taking the over.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds
|Red Sox Odds||+135|
|Over/Under||8.5 (-120 / +100)|
|Time||7:15 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
We’ll be treated to a rematch of last week’s epic Sunday Night Baseball matchup, as Nick Pivetta and Jameson Taillon meet once again with the fate of a Yankees-Red Sox series very much in their hands.
With New York looking worse for wear these days, does it make sense that they’re favored here? What about the total? Let’s dig into all of that.
Can Red Sox Keep Streaking Against Yanks?
The Red Sox may be 14 1/2 games out of first place in the AL East, but they’ve now beaten the division leaders on three consecutive occasions — all of which were in truly bizarre fashion.
First, last Saturday, Boston became the only team to come back and win on the Yankees after trailing after eight innings. Then, they erased a four-run deficit on Sunday.
In the first of three at Yankee Stadium on Friday, the Red Sox managed to escape back-to-back bases loaded jams in the ninth and 10th innings to somehow win on a wild pitch.
At any rate, it seems the only way you can describe the Red Sox’s success against the Yankees in recent games is magical. That’s because when you zoom out to the span of even the last week, Boston is still 24th in wRC+, with a high 24.3% strikeout rate and low .164 ISO.
It’s hardly doing much of anything at the plate.
In terms of Pivetta, it seems he’s lost his magic touch. After surrendering seven runs in 5 2/3 innings to the Rays, he gave up six in 3 1/3 frames last time out against the Yankees.
It seems to make sense that things would fall apart for Pivetta considering his 46.2% Hard Hit Rate, .258 expected batting average and .409 xwOBA on contact.
The only reason his expected ERA doesn’t look even worse than the 4.31 we see is because he’s done a good job of keeping his walk rate to the league average.
Will Yanks’ Offense Rebound?
Did someone say walks? Well, Taillon — who gets the ball today for New York — has only walked 12 batters in 94 1/3 innings. All together, that puts him at just a 3.1% walk rate, which is the best in the league.
Like Pivetta, his expected batting average of .283 is pretty troubling, though his Hard Hit Rate is right at league average at 35.6%.
The best thing you can say about Taillon is that he’s limited traffic somewhat on the base paths and hasn’t given up a ton of homers. But the bad news is that it’s hard to say he’s been unlucky to own his 4.01 ERA.
Speaking of walks, that’s one thing the Yankees do very well. They’ve been issued free passes at a 10.6% clip over the last week, which ranks second in baseball. And for the season, they lead the league at 10.3%. This is going to be an important nugget against Pivetta.
Finally, we should note here that as things have begun to fall apart for the Yankees — with five losses in six games — the offense has fallen more than anything.
New York ranks 12th in wRC+ over the last week, though it owns a pedestrian .162 ISO and 25.7% strikeout rate.
The Yankees are also in the bottom 10 of the league in Barrel Rate and around the middle of the pack in Hard Hit Rate.
Red Sox-Yankees Pick
I’m not a fan of either of these pitchers right now, and while the offenses have both had their issues, I’m certain that a good number of runs will be scored here.
Pivetta just gave up two homers at Fenway Park against the Yankees, who are also a pretty bad matchup for the righty — given they make Pivetta revert back into the high-walk pitcher he’s been for years.
Taillon, too, gave up three homers to Boston, as he failed to miss any bats and was the victim of his high-expected batting average.
Despite the fact that both offenses have been middling, I think we should see another slugfest here — given how poor both pitchers are.
While it’s hard to fade the Yankees in a slugfest, it’s even harder to pass up a relatively low total.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120)