Thursday MLB Odds & Picks for Reds vs. Cubs: Big Betting Value Thanks to Windy Wrigley Field Weather
Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images. Pictured: General view of Chicago Cubs flags blowing in the wind
- Thursday's Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs MLB odds are on the move thanks to windy weather at Wrigley Field.
- Steady 15 mph breezes are expected today in Chicago, which can strongly affect whether long fly balls carry over the ball for home runs or are knocked down into warning-track outs.
- Continue reading to see the latest Wrigley Field weather forecast, as well as how savvy Reds vs. Cubs bettors can find value on Thursday afternoon.
Reds vs. Cubs Odds
|Time||2:10 p.m. ET|
Wind is always a factor at Wrigley Field for MLB bettors in the know.
No, this doesn’t mean that winds affect every single Cubs home game, but it’s something that experienced bettors know to check before taking a position on any game on Chicago’s north side.
In fact, oddsmakers often wait longer than normal to post over/unders for Cubs day games in Chicago in order to get the most accurate data as possible regarding how the breezes will blow at Wrigley.
And from a betting standpoint, this makes all the sense in the world.
Strong winds blowing out to the ivy-covered walls will increase scoring by turning long fly balls into home runs. However, breezes in the other direction can keep home-shots in the park, resulting in nothing more than warning-track outs.
As you can probably surmise from the headline, there will be very strong winds at Wrigley Field for Thursday afternoon’s Reds vs. Cubs matchup, and here’s how savvy bettors can take advantage.
Reds vs. Cubs Pick
According to the National Weather Service, 15 mph breezes are expected Thursday at Wrigley Field with gusts of 30 mph possible.
But as we know, it’s not only the strength of the winds that matter, but also the direction.
Thanks to Sports Insights‘ weather data, we can see that these sustained 15 mph breezes will be blowing directly in towards home plate throughout Thursday’s entire Reds vs. Cubs matchup, which could certainly lower expected scoring.
In fact, when winds of at least 5 mph are blowing in at Wrigley Field, 59.8% of Cubs home games have gone under the closing total since 2005.
When those breezes reach double-digits, the win rate for unders improves to 66.2% while also maintaining a surprisingly large 160-game sample.
At 15 mph, the success of unders skyrockets even further to 71%, but please beware that just 33 games have reached the 15-mph benchmark at Wrigley over this span.