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Reds vs. Yankees MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back New York’s Severino to Win (Wednesday, July 13)

Reds vs. Yankees MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back New York’s Severino to Win (Wednesday, July 13) article feature image
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Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images. Pictured: New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino.

  • The New York Yankees look to rebound in Wednesday's MLB showdown with the Cincinnati Reds.
  • The Yankees are heavy -350 moneyline favorites, but analyst Nicholas Martin has found betting value on the props market.
  • Check out where he has landed with his top pick ahead of this clash.

Reds vs. Yankees Odds

Reds Odds +260
Yankees Odds -350
Over/Under 8.5 (-120/+100)
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The series opener saw one of the more shocking finishes of the season, as the suddenly hot Cincinnati Reds scored four runs in the top of the ninth inning off New York Yankees reliever Clay Holmes to steal a 4-3 win in Tuesday’s game.

The Reds enter Wednesday’s contest as massive underdogs to win a sixth consecutive game and will send Mike Minor to the mound for a matchup against Luis Severino.

So, can we find value in a contest with the Yankees priced as -350 favorites? Let’s take a look to see what we can uncover ahead of this clash.

Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati bats have been surprisingly hot over its five-game winning streak. However, I wouldn’t count on this recent tear being sustainable over a moderately large sample size. Plus, we know even the worst teams will have stretches like this where batted balls just seem to get down at the right times.

Cincinnati has still hit to a fifth worst wRC+ of 87 over the last 30 days, with a WOBA of .301 this season.

Throughout the campaign, the Reds has been the league’s fourth least productive unit against right-handed pitching as well, with a wRC+ of 84 and a strikeout rate of 24.2 percent.

And even should the Reds manage to continue this surprising recent run of results with a strong output against Severino, it might not mean finding a result with Minor on the mound.

Minor, who has pitched to an ERA above 5.00 in each of the last three seasons, has been crushed in 38 innings of work this season to 6.63 ERA since returning from a shoulder injury.

Minor’s xERA of 4.70 suggests he has been far less dreadful than that number suggests, but his awful string of results have come against far easier competition than this lineup at Yankee Stadium.

Minor’s .388 xWOBA has happened in starts against teams averaging 20th rank in terms of wRC+ rating against left-handed pitching and he has thrown to a poor QOPA of 4.14 throughout his first seven starts.

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New York Yankees

The Yankees have been the most dangerous offense this season and it’s splits versus left-handed pitching remain very solid, with a 118 wRC+ and a .332 WOBA overall.

New York has also hit to excellent numbers against the fastball and slider in particular, with a combined run value of 54.6, and should see those pitches more than 70% of the time with Minor on the mound.

Luis Severino has remained in dominant form of late, with a 2.25 ERA and stellar 0.91 WHIP over his last 36 innings of work.

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Reds-Yankees Pick

Minor has struggled mightily in the early going, so it’s easy to see how the Yankees could be leading in this matchup after the first five innings and never relinquish the advantage from that point on.

Severino has remained quite steady of late and should be able to manage another reasonable performance against the Reds.

Outside of his first appearance of the season, Severino has pitched five or more innings in 13 of 14 starts so far and should he manage to do so yet again, That said, I believe we will most likely see him leave in line for a win.

At -110 odds at DraftKings, I see value backing Severino to triumph and I’d play this down to -125 odds as my top pick. I see far more value with this as opposed to the Yankees giving -1.5 runs on the spread at -160, which I’m sure will also be a popular play on this contest.

Pick: Luis Severino — New York To Record A Win (-110)

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