Rockies vs Rays Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Tuesday, August 22
Via Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Randy Arozarena #56 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates a run in the first inning during game one of a doubleheader at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on August 19, 2023 in Anaheim, California.
Rockies vs. Rays Odds
The Colorado Rockies enter this series with the Tampa Bay Rays in a rough stretch, as they have won just three of their last 10 games. However, despite this game being away from Coors Field, the bats will have an opportunity to come to life.
The same can be said about the Rays, who are still squarely in playoff position despite losing a number of key players. The Rays have remained afloat in the American League by getting significant contributions from unsung young talent, and they'll have another opportunity to shine tonight.
So, what's the best way to bet on this series-opening matchup between the Colorado Rockies and the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field? Let's take a closer look to find out.
The Rockies are not typically a team you would target for their offensive prowess. They are in the bottom third of the league in Average Exit Velocity, Barrel Rate, and Hard-Hit Rate.
On top of that, they have drastic home-road splits, as their team batting average away from Coors Field is 40 points lower than it is at home, and their Slugging Percentage is 81 points lower than what it is at Coors.
However, they cannot be overlooked at the dish tonight, because they will face Zack Littell. Littell has transitioned from opener to starter, as he's gone at least five innings in each of his last four outings.
Getting two to three turns against Zack Littell is a prime matchup for the Rockies, as he's due for significant regression. Littell's xERA of 4.69 is much higher than his actual ERA of 3.99, and that's because he's surrendered a ton of loud contact.
Littell ranks in the first percentile in Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate Allowed. He's also a strike-thrower who does not miss many bats. So if there's anyone this Rockies lineup can come to life against, it's Littell.
As I touched on in the open, the Rays have been a team that has consistently outperformed expectations offensively this season. They've clearly cooled down from early in the season, but they have been able to avoid further regression by making quality contact consistently.
Tampa Bay is still third in the league in wOBACON and seventh in team batting average. Those stats are largely due to the contributions of guys like Jose Siri, Issac Paredes and Harold Ramirez, who have supported the top half of the lineup.
The Rays should continue to produce at the plate as they have an even better matchup than their opposition. The Rays get to face Ty Blach, who enters with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP on the season.
A closer look shows just how much he's due to regress. Blach's xERA is 6.51, and his xBA is .334. Those two metrics rank in the second and first percentile, respectively.
Also, just like his counterpart, he is a strike-thrower who does not miss bats. The Rays should get the bats going early tonight.
Rockies vs. Rays
Betting Pick & Prediction
It is clear that this matchup has all the makings of a high-scoring affair, especially through the first five innings with both starters on the bump. However, there's no telling that the scoring will stop once they depart.
The Rockies have the fourth-worst bullpen ERA in the majors and are not due for much positive regression as a group. As for the Rays, their bullpen ERA is in the middle of the pack at 4.03, but their collective FIP and SIERA are higher than their ERA, which is a clear indication of regression to come.
Take the over, as the Rockies and Rays should trade blows all game long.
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