Saturday’s MLB Over/Under: Can Fulmer, Clevinger Continue Day Game Prowess?

Saturday’s MLB Over/Under: Can Fulmer, Clevinger Continue Day Game Prowess? article feature image

Betting odds: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians

    • Over/Under: 8
    • First Pitch: 3:10 p.m. ET
    • Probable Pitchers: Michael Fulmer (3-11, 4.56 ERA) vs. Mike Clevinger (11-8, 3.16 ERA)

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 95-64-4, +24.4 units
Yesterday’s Result: Reds-Cubs Under 8.5, Harvey vs. Hamels (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


It is my pleasure to say that I have a Michael Fulmer start this afternoon. You may recall my 5-1 record on Fulmer over/unders throughout the season — including 5-0 in his afternoon starts.

The significance is that Fulmer is just much more consistent under the sun. In fact, his ERA in afternoon outings (3.77) is nearly half — half! — of what it is in his starts at night (6.82) this year.

It’s within a large sample size, too, as nobody has made more starts (16) during the day than Fulmer.

That’s no fluke, as the 25-year-old right-hander has typically exhibited better work in his daytime assignments. His career ERA in afternoon games is 3.17, easily topping the 4.37 ERA he’s posted with dark skies.

This former American League Rookie of the Year is better than his current numbers and I’m confident he can improve upon them as the season winds down.

Interestingly, we have another starter in this matchup who has also excelled in his daytime outings throughout his still-young career.

That would be Mike Clevinger, who has been enjoying a banner campaign with an 11-8 record to go with a 3.16 ERA, .232 BAA and a neat 9.43 K/9 mark.

When he’s pitching in the afternoon, Clevinger has typically been even better, notching a 2.19 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in such starts. By contrast, he’s logged a 3.96 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at night.

This has been a glaring trend in Clevinger’s time in the majors thus far as he’s 12-3 in 20 career afternoon starts (and four relief appearances) with a 2.47 ERA.

You may as well get your under action in right away, as this line has no chance of going up.

Play: UNDER 8 (-115)


Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.