The San Diego Padres host the Seattle Mariners on April 16, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Mariners are favored by -120 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are -100 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mariners vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mariners vs Padres Prediction
- Mariners vs Padres Pick: Mariners ML (-115)
My Mariners vs Padres best bet is on Seattle to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Padres Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +102 |
- Mariners vs Padres spread: Mariners -1.5 (+140), Padres +1.5 (-169)
- Mariners vs Padres over/under: 8.5 (-107o / -112u)
- Mariners vs Padres moneyline: Mariners -120, Padres -100
Mariners vs Padres Pitchers
| Luis Castillo | Stat | Walker Buehler |
|---|---|---|
| 8-9 | W-L | 10-6 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 6.92 / 4.92 | ERA /xERA | 4.97 / 3.64 |
| 3.16 / 3.65 | FIP / xFIP | 3.87 / 3.72 |
| 1.77 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| 16.1 | K-BB% | 11.3 |
| 45.2 | GB% | 58.3 |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 115 | Location+ | 89 |
Mariners vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
Seattle Mariners: Not Clicking Yet
The Mariners are having a disappointing start to the 2026 season. They have an 8-11 record and are tied with the Houston Astros for last place in the AL East.
Luckily, there is 88% of the MLB season left to play. The Mariners are not a bad team whatsoever. Their starting staff is in the conversation for the best in baseball, while their bullpen is arguably the best in the AL.
Offense is holding Seattle back from a better start. They are 24th in team wOBA, 25th in OPS, and have the seventh-highest strikeout rate in baseball. wRC+ is more kind to the Mariners (15th), given their pitcher-friendly home environment.
Nevertheless, the offense will come … eventually. There is too much talent to fail across a full season. Julio Rodriguez is a perennial MVP candidate, while Cal Raleigh was just the MVP runner-up. Both stars are well below average to start this season.
The secondary pieces of this offense are either doing their job or just waking up. Josh Naylor had a multi-HR game this week, Randy Arozarena has a .382 wOBA, and Brendan Donovan has been a consistent spark at the top of the order.
Once all the gears in the lineup start working in unison, watch out. Mariners to win the AL at +475 is as good as it might get.
San Diego Padres: Feels Fragile
The Padres have the second-best record in baseball, yet sit second in their own division. This is what happens when you happen to play within two hours of Dodger Stadium.
Unfortunately, they should be worse than their record. Their team ERA is seventh, but their team wRC+ and wOBA are 14th. The rotation and bullpen have carried them to start the season.
However, the rotation is a mishmash of names that just lost their de facto ace, Nick Pivetta, for at least a month. Their team ERA will likely get much worse as the season goes on.
The offense should get better as superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. heats up. His .283 wOBA trails his .365 xwOBA significantly, but the lineup is not among the league's best regardless of his typical output.
They sit in the middle of the league as a team offensively, despite the other five hitters in their top six performing up to par, if not better.
The Padres are an above-average team at best unless they make another significant midseason trade.
Mariners vs Padres Pick
One of those previously mentioned "mishmash" names in the Padres rotation is today's starter, Walker Buehler. He was one of the league's best starters several years ago, but recurring elbow issues drained his once-elite abilities and velocity.
Buehler's fastball velocity is over three mph lower than his average from 2018 through 2020. Despite this and his 4.97 ERA, he has had some success this year.
Buehler's peripheral stats are very good through three starts. He has a 3.64 xERA, 3.72 xFIP, and 3.81 SIERA. He has accomplished this by transitioning to an extreme groundball SP.
He has the sixth-highest groundball-to-flyball ratio in baseball among all pitchers with at least 10 innings thrown this season. His 58.3% groundball rate is a far cry from his 42.7% rate last year.
Unfortunately, he is very likely closer to his ERA than his peripherals in the long run. Buehler's starts this season have come against some of the worst offenses in baseball — the Red Sox (22nd wRC+), the Giants (26th wRC+), and the Rockies away from Coors (28th wRC+).
Meanwhile, the Mariners' starter today has had the opposite luck with lineups. Luis Castillo has faced the Astros (2nd wRC+), the Angels (8th wRC+), and the Yankees (17th wRC+). The worst offense Castillo has faced thus far would be the best Buehler would have faced.
Castillo is closer to a league-average SP than the high-end middle-rotation starter he once was, but that should be enough to get the job done today.
Both bullpens are fresh, and both offenses have underperforming stars, but the starting pitching matchup has a significant gap.
Pick: Mariners ML (-115)
