Tigers vs Mets Pick Today | MLB Odds, Predictions (Monday, April 1)

The Mets will aim for their first win of the season when they welcome in the Tigers on a wet, perhaps rainy night in New York on Monday.

With Sean Manaea coming off a solid spring with his new club, is there hope here for the home team? Or, will Reese Olson rise to the occasion and deliver for Detroit?

Let's get into the numbers below and make a Tigers vs Mets pick and prediction for Monday.

The Tigers made it through their first series of the season unscathed, first surviving a gem from White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet to win 1-0 on Opening Day before taking the next two in Chicago. Along the way, the offense looked rather pedestrian but managed to build on some positives from 2023, and the pitching staff looked very strong outside of Kenta Maeda's dud.

One of those bright spots a year ago was Kerry Carpenter, who's expected to serve as this team's primary DH in 2024. He was out of the lineup against a lefty on Opening Day, only to go 4-for-9 over the next two contests with a double and a homer.

His career splits at this level have certainly indicated he prefers to hit right-handers, though he was more than palatable against southpaws in the minors and found himself facing more a season ago.

I'll be very curious to see if Detroit pencils him into the lineup here against Manaea, and if they do, the offensive outlook should be a bit more promising with Matt Vierling heading to the bench.

Still, this young lineup has some promise at the top of the order, and it's worth noting that the team has managed to produce at an acceptable level without getting anything from highly touted prospect Colt Keith through three games.

On the hill is another bright young talent in Olson. The righty put up a 3.99 ERA in 103 2/3 innings last year to begin his big-league career, and his big strikeout numbers already began to translate with 24.4% of his matchups ending in a third strike — a number which is firmly above the league average. There were some concerns with his expected numbers, particularly on the fastball, but they did level off after a big spike in July.

It's also worth noting that the Mets, for all their struggles at the plate, have struggled with the fastball this year with a negative run value over one run which comes a season after they finished as the second-worst offense in the game against the pitch.

ESPN Bet is now another sportsbook option to maximize your Tigers vs. Mets action. You can now use our ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS for a new user welcome.

Manaea is an utterly compelling pitcher here. The lefty was once one of the best young talents in the game before things went south in Oakland, and after a strong 2021 he was dealt to San Diego before ownership had to decide whether or not to pay him — a question just about all of us know the answer to.

His stock fell in the NL West, cratering with the San Diego Padres, who haven't had the best track record with bringing in imperfect pitchers, before leveling a bit in San Francisco, who decided to use him as a long man out of the bullpen, but in a role where he still effectively had a starter's workload.

Given his poor 4.44 ERA and his departure after just one year, though, it doesn't inspire much confidence given San Francisco's incredible ability to succeed with pitching projects.

Manaea will carry some worsening issues with walks and barrels into New York, where the Mets seem to be punting on the season and looking forward to a big winter and subsequent 2025 season. There are still some reasons to believe, like his steadying strikeout rate and solid spring where he posted a 3.24 ERA with 21 punchouts.

The question will be whether or not he can keep the ball in the yard, something he's yet to do successfully over the last three seasons — something he couldn't do despite pitching in three spacious ballparks.

Offensively, things couldn't be going much worse for the Mets. They're starved for baserunners, surviving off only a collection of home runs over the first three games, and it looks like Jeff McNeil — who has just one hit all year including spring training — is either hurt or the victim of a sudden and vicious decline.

Starling Marte has looked competent to this point, something the team surely can't count on to continue all season given the recent trends we've seen from the veteran, and Pete Alonso is still a certified masher of the baseball. Other than that, this is looking like a very bad lineup that should struggle to benefit greatly from the longballs they can find given the at-bats they've taken and the lack of hits and walks.

It's early, but so far the Tigers have done an acceptable job of at least not going backward after a season where they were roughly average in barrels and hard-hit balls. They were significantly better against lefties last year than righties, and should they decide to experiment with Carpenter — perhaps their best hitter — against southpaws a bit more, I think this lineup could turn into a dangerous one in this split.

Olson is a pitcher expected to take a step forward this season, and should find himself in a fantastic matchup against a Mets team which has struggled to hit fastballs and one which has been striking out at an alarming clip to this point. By negating his biggest weakness and helping him build his strikeout numbers to the levels we saw through the minors, I think the Mets will put themselves in another precarious situation.

Detroit can mash lefties, and Manaea isn't a pitcher I trust here even after a strong spring. The Tigers are ranked ninth when it comes to limiting strikeouts through the early part of the season, even with Crochet looking like the second coming of Chris Sale on Opening Day.

I feel sorry for the fans who will make the trek in the weather, but all signs point to a Tigers win.

Pick: Tigers ML (+118)