Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, August 18.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Blue Jays Moneyline (+120, Play to +115)
- Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Over 8 (-110; Play to -120)
Blue Jays vs Rays Picks
The Blue Jays have done well to claw their way back into the AL Wild Card race despite facing a notably difficult schedule of late, winning six consecutive series, including victories over the Phillies, Red Sox, and, most recently, the Yankees. They will open a series at the “Trop” on Tuesday, which has historically been a house of horrors for Toronto.
However, considering the prices for this matchup, the Blue Jays' historic failures in Tampa may be a liveable concern given the pitching advantages the Blue Jays should hold throughout this game against a depleted Rays bullpen.
The Blue Jays organization has generally been adept at maximizing the effectiveness of its pitchers, in part due to their strong fielding, and in a tiny two-game sample, Soriano has already benefited from the team's strong infield defense while pitching to a 1.69 ERA in difficult matchups against the Phillies and Red Sox.
After a lethargic couple of months following his incredible scoreless streak to start the season, Soriano has started to dominate once again in pitching to an ERA of 2.41 throughout his last 33 2/3 innings, with a FIP of 3.35.
He has outperformed his xERA throughout the majority of his MLB career, which is seemingly in part due to his ability induce ground-balls in big spots with his excellent sinker.
After an off-day yesterday, Toronto's top four relievers in Louis Varland, Tyler Rogers, Mason Fluharty and Spencer Miles are all well-rested, though Miles will likely be preferably used in long relief Wednesday with Max Scherzer starting the game.
Nick Martinez has proven to be another extremely savvy pickup from the Rays front office, but he has outperformed his 4.43 xERA and 4.54 xFIP quite considerably this season, and while that is to some extent the case with Soriano as well, Martinez's career high 85% strand rate seems unsustainable and is a major reason for his excellent surface-level statistics.
The Rays obviously have the more potent lineup, but it has really seemed as though Toronto is having much more competitive at-bats on average during its recent heater, and their offensive splits may have picked up even more so if not for the fact that they have faced a ton of high quality starters throughout the month of August.
With Soriano toeing the rubber and supported by several elite relievers, a price of +120 looks appealing to back the red-hot Blue Jays earning a critical win Tuesday.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (+120, bet365; Play to +115)
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Picks
Though the Diamondbacks will remain without Ketel Marte, who, following some controversy on Monday, is reportedly on the injured list due to a knee injury, their lineup should still provide a tough test for Ranger Suárez.
Since June 1, Arizona has posted a 113 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, while holding MLB’s best BB/K ratio and ranking seventh in hard-hit rate over that span. That isn't overly surprising, as the Diamondbacks have been MLB’s third-most productive team against left-handed pitching since the start of 2025.
Suarez has pitched to an xERA of 4.56 across his last six starts and may be a little overvalued here given the difficulty of the matchup.
Arizona may need to have a big offensive output in this matchup in order to have a fighting chance, as Merrill Kelly has been among the worst starters to pitch over 100 innings this season. Kelly holds a 7.13 xERA and 4.99 xFIP, as well as a Stuff+ rating of 89. He's been hard-hit 44.7% of the time while holding a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 5.4%.
The Red Sox hold a wRC+ of 116 since the start of July, as well as a wRC+ of 116 versus right-handed pitching in that span.
Considering the recent form of Arizona's lineup, a total of 8 looks to be a little low in a game featuring Kelly in a batter-friendly venue.
Picks: Over 8 Runs (-110; FanDuel, Play to -120)
Martin's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, August 18
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Blue Jays Moneyline (+120, Play to +115)
- Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Over 8 (-110; Play to -120)
