For my Tuesday MLB player props, I'll be looking into a pair of hitters in Josh Naylor and Addison Barger as well as Paul Skenes against the Brewers.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, August 12.
MLB Player Props for August 12, 2025
- Josh Naylor Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120, BetMGM)
- Addison Barger Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125, Fanatics)
- Paul Skenes Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+110, DraftKings)
Mariners vs Orioles Player Props: Naylor’s Hot Streak Meets Kremer’s Inconsistency
Naylor hit .292 with the Diamondbacks this season and he has hit .288 in 15 games with the Mariners. However, his OPS has seen a noticeable increase and is up to .939 as a Mariner. That is partly because he has homered in three of his last five games. The Mariners will be back East for this set with the Orioles, but that may not be a bad thing for Naylor, considering the matchup.
Naylor is 6-for-9 with a double and a home run against Dean Kremer. While his average is virtually the same, regardless of the handines, Naylor has 26 of his 38 extra-base hits against right-handers this season. That includes 11 of his 15 homers and he is +430 on Fanatics to leave the yard tonight.
Kremer is certainly inconsistent as he is allowed four runs or more five times in his last 11 starts, but also allowed one run or fewer five times in that span as well. However, he can be roughed up against left-handed batters as they are hitting .270 with 17 doubles, three triples, 11 home runs, and a .784 OPS.
That certainly lines up well for Naylor, who has cleared two total bases in four of his past five games. Considering his dominance against Naylor thus far, I expect that trend to continue.
Cubs vs Blue Jays Player Props: Barger’s Power Potential vs Brown’s Struggles
Ben Brown has certainly shown flashes of brilliance at times this season, but overall, 2025 has been a rough campaign for him. He was moved to the bullpen after the Cubs acquired Michael Soroka from the Nationals at the trade deadline. However, with Soroka landing on the IL, Brown is back in the rotation and tasked with a very difficult assignment tonight.
The Blue Jays set offensive records at Coors Field and salvaged the finale against the Dodgers, making for a very successful road trip. They return home, where they are 5.3 runs per game and face a pitcher with a 6.04 ERA tonight. I am certainly interested in Brown's earned runs tonight. However, he may only be tasked with four innings, but he will present a great matchup for Barger while he is in.
Against Brown, lefties are slashing .291/.351/.549 and 12 of the 16 home runs Brown has allowed this season. He ranks in the eighth percentile of qualified pitchers with an 11.3% barrel rate and 11th with a 46.5% hard hit percentage.
Enter Barger, who hits the ball as hard as anyone from the left side. He ranks in the 95th percentile in hard hit percentage, 94th in average exit velocity, and 82nd in barrel rate.
Barger has 18 home runs this season and 17 of them have come against right-handers. He has cleared two total bases in each of his last five starts with two home runs and three multi-hit games. I like that trend to continue for him back home at Rogers Center, where he is hitting .277 with an .860 OPS this season.
Pirates vs Brewers Player Props: Skenes Faces Hot Brewers in Tough Test
About a month ago, an innings restriction was mentioned for Skenes, which is not surprising, given the Pirates' significant distance from the race. It has not affected Skenes much as he has tossed five scoreless outings in his last seven starts, but he did throw just 78 pitches consecutively. He has thrown over 90 pitches in each of his last three starts. However, he has tossed six innings in just four of his last 10 starts.
His shortest outing in that span -and the shortest since his MLB debut- came against the Milwaukee Brewers when Skenes allowed four earned runs in four innings. Skenes had dominated the Brewers in his two previous starts against them and it certainly would not surprise me if that was the case again tonight. However, the Brewers are the hottest team in baseball right now.
They have won their last 10 games and 25 of their last 29 games. They enter tonight's game having scored 7 runs in each of their last three games. Skenes offers a tougher assignment than Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, and Andrew Heaney. However, a lengthy at-bat and a lengthy at-bat there and all of a sudden Skenes is at 90 pitches through five innings. In that scenario, he likely does not get 18 outs.