The Tampa Bay Rays host the San Diego Padres on August 29, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on RAYS.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Rays Prediction
- Padres vs Rays Pick: Padres ML (46c, Kalshi)
Padres vs Rays Kalshi MLB Odds
Padres vs Rays Probable Pitchers
| Walker Buehler (RHP, SDP) | Stat | Nick Martinez (RHP, TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-6 | W-L | 13-4 |
| 1.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.5 |
| 4.63 / 4.17 | ERA / xERA | 2.93 / 4.29 |
| 4.20 / 4.21 | FIP / xFIP | 3.91 / 4.49 |
| 11.0% | K-BB% | 11.0% |
| 47.5% | GB% | 35.2% |
| .296 | BABIP | .265 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 100 | Location+ | 107 |
Padres vs Rays MLB Preview
Our own Sean Zerillo projects some value on the Padres in this game.
Per BARTOLO, Zerillo projects San Diego with an exact 50% chance to win on the road today, yet we can trade them at Kalshi for just 43c.
There are a couple of key factors that go into this projection.
First, while Nick Martinez (2.93 ERA) seems like a far better pitcher than Walker Buehler (4.63 ERA), their underlying indicators are actually about the same.
It’s really just a low BABIP (.265) and a high strand rate (82.9%) that have kept Martinez’s ERA down. He’s allowed more hard-hit balls over the past few weeks, so I’m hopeful that more will find the gaps and negative regression will keep hitting.
Additionally, Zerillo projects these two lineups with the same wRC+ against right-handed pitching:
And Zerillo projects the Padres with the much-better bullpen – actually, San Diego has MLB’s best relief unit, anchored by the unhittable Mason Miller.
Check out BARTOLO for more data breakdowns like this one:
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Pick: Padres ML (46c, Kalshi)
