Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Saturday, August 29.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- White Sox/Twins Over 9.5 (+102), 1u | Bet through 10
- Cubs (F5) -185, 1.11u | Bet to -225
- Cubs -188, 0.75u | Bet to -215
- Cubs TT Over 4.5 (-125), 0.63u | Bet to -160
- Nationals TT Over 3.5 (-120), 0.6u | Bet to -135
White Sox @ Twins Picks
Target Field’s 106 Park Run Factor via Statcast is higher than all but two parks in this league (Colorado, Sacremento) and tied with parks in Boston, Arizona and Washington.
There is some discrepancy on how the weather will affect Saturday’s game, but BARTOLO is sporting the smaller boost, currently at 2.2%. Scheduled home plate umpire, Lance Barrett (+0.1%) is nearly neutral.
Overall, it’s probably at least an 8% boost unless the forecast changes.
We also have a pair of pitchers scheduled, who both have ERAs above four, yet are still outperforming their peripherals.
This will be Erick Fedde’s first start in August, though he’s allowed 10 runs (eight earned) in 16 innings out of the pen. None of those runs have come in his most recent appearances, a pair of bulk relief outings, covering 8.2 innings, in which he’s struck out seven of 33 Cubs and Mets with three walks.
The velo has bumped up a little bit, but the Mets still barreled Fedde three times without any damage being done.
On the season, his 4.18 ERA lies below estimators ranging from a 4.37 Bot ERA (98 Pitching+) to a 5.25 FIP, but perhaps most telling are a SIERA and xERA that both sit exactly at 4.68, also exactly half a run above his actual ERA.
Fedde’s BABIP (.275) and strand rate (76.4%) will probably regress a bit, but aren’t too concerning. However, 12.7% of his 63 runs have been unearned.
For Ober, his 4.49 ERA still sits below indicators ranging from a 4.74 FIP and xERA to a 5.80 dERA, held together by a .266 BABIP that may not be too unsustainable if he’s able to retain the enormous 19 IFFB%. He’s induced almost as many popups (32) as barrels (36).
Those barrels (10.3%) are a problem though.
I have both pitchers much closer to five than four runs per nine or even four and a half, though Fedde sits right at that mid-point of the latter number with Ober just below it.
Neither of these pitchers should normally pose much of a threat to competent offenses, which the White Sox and Twins certainly are. Neither pitcher has held batters from either side of the plate below a .318 wOBA or xwOBA this year.
Even without Byron Buxton, the projected Minnesota lineup averages a 106 wRC+ at home, 123 wRC+ vs RHP and 108 wRC+ over the last 30 days. In fact, Royce Lewis (89) is the only projected Twin below a 108 wRC+ against RHP this season.
The Chicago projected lineup has been nearly as good, averaging a 104 wRC+ on the road, 111 RC+ vs RHP and 107 over the last month. The first three batters are all above a 125 wRC+ vs RHP.
While the White Sox have a competent defense, the Twins project for -26 FRV from their starters, bringing the combined defenses to -12 FRV.
Bullpens from both teams have been middle of the league over the last month with the Twins ranking 11th (3.66 FIP, 4.16 xFIP, 3.98 SIERA) and the White Sox 20th (4.04 FIP, 4.47 xFIP, 4.16 SIERA), while BARTOLO rates them both middle of the pack (MIN 15th, CWS 17th) too.
The White Sox and Twins hit their total in the fourth inning on Friday night. I expect this to be another high scoring affair.
Picks: Over 9.5 (+102), 1u | Bet through 10
Reds @ Cubs Picks
I’ve probably successfully bet against Andrew Abbott more than any other pitcher this year and with just a month to go, why stop now?
In the month of August, he’s allowed 17 runs in 28 innings with an 11.2 BB% bringing his season rate up to 10.8%, giving him a miniscule 7.3 K-BB%.
Even with Abbott managing contact as well as ever (7.6% Barrels/BBE, 37.7 HardHit%), he’s still flashing a 4.72 xERA. He doesn’t have a single estimator below four and a half.
Part of that is generating just a 40.9 GB%, which is actually a career high. I should stop to mention that the wind will be blowing out on a near 80 degree day at Wrigley on Saturday.
He’ll be facing a ferocious Cubs offense with the projected lineup averaging a 124 wRC+ at home, 123 wRC+ vs LHP and 114 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Ian Happ (49) is the only projected Cub below average against southpaws and Nico Hoerner (100) is the only other one below 113.
The Reds add a below average defense with Saturday’s projected unit at -8 FRV (Fielding Run Value). Their bullpen has pitched reasonably well over the last month with a 3.57 FIP, 4.32 xFIP and 3.73 SIERA, though they are still BARTOLO’s 27th ranked unit on the year.
Kevin Gausman has allowed 11 runs in 23 innings for the Cubs, but has done this with an 18.3 K-BB% and 68.8 LOB%. His 4.37 ERA sits above estimators ranging from a 3.12 Bot ERA (105 Pitching+) to a 3.86 xERA, indicating his 67.6 LOB% on the season might be responsible for a half run worth of ERA woes.
He does have an even lower ground ball rate than Abbott (38%), but considering the Reds normally play in one of the most power friendly parks in the league and still only average a marginal .165 ISO among projected starters, it’s not too concerning.
The same Cincinnati lineup averages a 104 wRC+ on the road and 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days, but just 95 wRC+.
You probably know the Cubs have the best defense in the league with Saturday’s projected starters at 52 FRV. The bullpen has struggled over the last month (4.21 FIP, 4.42 xFIP, 4.16 SIERA), but still rank 18th via BARTOLO, nine spots ahead of the Reds.
I have Gausman at least a clear run ahead of Abbott and the offenses separated by about 25 points of wRC+. Add in a 60 FRV gap and some minor bullpen discrepancies hardly begin to make any of that up.
For that last reason though, I see more value in the F5 market and will be splitting to win 1.5 units on three separate plays here.
Picks: Cubs F5 -185, 1.11u | Bet to -225, Cubs -188, 0.75u | Bet to -215, Cubs TT Over 4.5 (-125), 0.63u | Bet to -160
Marlins @ Nationals Picks
I know a lot of people like to look at Sandy Alcantara’s 3.38 ERA and believe he’s back, but the truth is that his K-BB (11.6%) is only 0.2 points better than last year and his 42.7 GB% is a career worst.
True, he has gotten back to handling contact well, allowing just 5.3% Barrels/BBE with a 35.1 HardHit%, but even the 3.64 xERA that generates is a quarter run higher than actual results and also still well below his contact neutral estimators (4.37 SIERA, 4.20 xFIP).
It all rounds out to something around four. BARTOLO and I certainly agree on this.
The Washington lineup has taken some lumps with Woods on the IL, Mead gone and Abrams running a 66 wRC+ over the last month. However, we still can’t completely ignore his 151 wRC+ against RHP this season, which keeps the projected lineup close to average.
I won’t average it out because Andres Chaparro’s 208 wRC+ vs RHP is a fluke that skews the numbers, but BARTOLO’s 94 wRC+ projection is a fine stand in.
The Marlins also have a solid defense with Saturday’s projected starters at 12 FRV.
The bullpen is closer to the bottom of the league though, both by BARTOLO’s season ranks (21sT) and last 30 day estimators.
All of that gets us pretty close to four runs on Saturday without even considering the environment and that environment (park, weather and umpire) lean very hitter friendly.
In the first game, I mentioned Washington as one of the highest run environments in the league (+6%). Again here, BARTOLO is the low man on the weather (+2.8%) with scheduled umpire Emil Jiemenz (+0.1%) also neutral.
This looks very much like the run environment in Minnesota. At least an 8-9% bump. That would push Washington healthily above their 3.5 run team total.
Picks: Nationals TT Over 3.5 (-120), 0.6u | Bet to -135
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, August 29
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- White Sox/Twins Over 9.5 (+102), 1u | Bet through 10
- Cubs (F5) -185, 1.11u | Bet to -225
- Cubs -188, 0.75u | Bet to -215
- Cubs TT Over 4.5 (-125), 0.63u | Bet to -160
- Nationals TT Over 3.5 (-120), 0.6u | Bet to -135
