The Minnesota Twins host the Chicago White Sox on August 29, 2026. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CHSN.
The Twins are favored by -114 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The White Sox are +106 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and White Sox vs Twins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
White Sox vs Twins Prediction
- White Sox vs Twins Pick: Over 9.5 (+102), 1u | Bet through 10
My White Sox vs Twins best bet is on the over total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
White Sox vs Twins Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 9.5 102o / -124u | +106 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 9.5 102o / -124u | -114 |
- White Sox vs Twins moneyline: White Sox +106, Twins -114
- White Sox vs Twins over/under: 9.5 (+102o / -124u)
- White Sox vs Twins spread: Twins -1.5 (+160), White Sox +1.5 (-194)
White Sox vs Twins Probable Pitchers
| Erick Fedde (RHP, CHW) | Stat | Bailey Ober (RHP, MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-8 | W-L | 7-4 |
| -0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 4.18/4.69 | ERA / xERA | 4.49/4.73 |
| 5.25/4.75 | FIP / xFIP | 4.74/4.91 |
| 8.0% | K-BB% | 9.8% |
| 39.2% | GB% | 33.8% |
| .275 | BABIP | .266 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 108 | Location+ | 94 |
White Sox vs Twins MLB Betting Preview, Prediction
Target Field’s 106 Park Run Factor via Statcast is higher than all but two parks in this league (Colorado, Sacramento) and tied with parks in Boston, Arizona and Washington.
There is some discrepancy on how the weather will affect Saturday’s game, but BARTOLO is sporting the smaller boost, currently at 2.2%. Scheduled home plate umpire Lance Barrett (+0.1%) is nearly neutral.
Overall, it’s probably at least an 8% boost unless the forecast changes.
We also have a pair of pitchers scheduled, both with ERAs above 4, yet still outperforming their peripherals.
This will be Erick Fedde’s first start in August, though he’s allowed 10 runs (eight earned) in 16 innings out of the pen. None of those runs have come in his most recent appearances, a pair of bulk relief outings covering 8.2 innings, in which he’s struck out seven of 33 Cubs and Mets with three walks.
The velo has bumped up a little bit, but the Mets still barreled Fedde three times without any damage being done.
On the season, his 4.18 ERA falls below estimates ranging from a 4.37 botERA (98 Pitching+) to a 5.25 FIP, but perhaps most telling are a SIERA and xERA that both sit at exactly 4.68, exactly half a run above his actual ERA.
Fedde’s BABIP (.275) and strand rate (76.4%) will probably regress a bit, but aren’t too concerning. However, 12.7% of his 63 runs have been unearned.
For Ober, his 4.49 ERA still sits below indicators ranging from a 4.74 FIP and xERA to a 5.80 dERA, held together by a .266 BABIP that may not be too unsustainable if he’s able to retain the enormous 19 IFFB%. He’s induced almost as many popups (32) as barrels (36).
Those barrels (10.3%) are a problem though.
I have both pitchers much closer to five than four runs per nine, or even four and a half, though Fedde sits right at that midpoint of the latter number, with Ober just below it.
Neither of these pitchers should normally pose much of a threat to competent offenses, which the White Sox and Twins certainly are. Neither pitcher has held batters from either side of the plate below a .318 wOBA or xwOBA this year.
Even without Byron Buxton, the projected Minnesota lineup averages a 106 wRC+ at home, 123 wRC+ vs RHP and 108 wRC+ over the last 30 days. In fact, Royce Lewis (89) is the only projected Twin below a 108 wRC+ against RHP this season.
The Chicago projected lineup has been nearly as good, averaging a 104 wRC+ on the road, 111 wRC+ vs RHP and 107 over the last month. The first three batters are all above a 125 wRC+ vs RHP.
While the White Sox have a competent defense, the Twins project for -26 FRV from their starters, bringing the combined defenses to -12 FRV.
Bullpens from both teams have been middle of the league over the last month, with the Twins ranking 11th (3.66 FIP, 4.16 xFIP, 3.98 SIERA) and the White Sox 20th (4.04 FIP, 4.47 xFIP, 4.16 SIERA), while BARTOLO rates them both middle of the pack (MIN 15th, CWS 17th) too.
The White Sox and Twins hit their total in the fourth inning on Friday night. I expect this to be another high-scoring affair.
Pick: Over 9.5 (+102), 1u | Bet through 10
