The Chicago Cubs host the Cincinnati Reds on August 29, 2026. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MARQ.
The Cubs are favored by -185 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +160 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Reds vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Reds vs Cubs Prediction
- Reds vs Cubs Pick: Cubs F5 -185, 1.11u | Bet to -225, Cubs -188, 0.75u | Bet to -215, Cubs Team Total Over 4.5 (-130), 0.63u | Bet to -160
My Reds vs Cubs best bet is on the Cubs to win on F5, the game and go over their team totals. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Cubs Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +110 | 8.5 -120o / -100u | +160 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -132 | 8.5 -120o / -100u | -185 |
- Reds vs Cubs moneyline: Reds +160, Cubs -185
- Reds vs Cubs over/under: 8.5 (-120o / -100u)
- Reds vs Cubs spread: Cubs -1.5 (+110 ), Reds +1.5 (-132)
Reds vs Cubs Probable Pitchers
| Andrew Abbott (CIN, LHP) | Stat | Kevin Gausman (CHC, RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-9 | W-L | 7-11 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.1 |
| 4.15/4.72 | ERA / xERA | 4.37/3.87 |
| 4.53/4.81 | FIP / xFIP | 3.50/3.76 |
| 7.3% | K-BB% | 17.1% |
| 40.9% | GB% | 38.0% |
| .274 | BABIP | .309 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 99 | Location+ | 108 |
Reds vs Cubs MLB Betting Preview
I’ve probably successfully bet against Andrew Abbott more than any other pitcher this year, and with just a month to go, why stop now?
In the month of August, he’s allowed 17 runs in 28 innings with an 11.2 BB%, bringing his season rate up to 10.8%, giving him a minuscule 7.3 K-BB%.
Even with Abbott managing contact as well as ever (7.6% Barrels/BBE, 37.7 HardHit%), he’s still flashing a 4.72 xERA. He doesn’t have a single estimator below 4.5.
Part of that is generating just a 40.9 GB%, which is actually a career high. I should mention that the wind will be blowing out on a near-80-degree day at Wrigley on Saturday.
He’ll be facing a ferocious Cubs offense with the projected lineup averaging a 124 wRC+ at home, 123 wRC+ vs LHP and 114 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Ian Happ (49) is the only projected Cub below average against southpaws, and Nico Hoerner (100) is the only other one below 113.
The Reds add a below-average defense with Saturday’s projected unit at -8 FRV (Fielding Run Value). Their bullpen has pitched reasonably well over the last month with a 3.57 FIP, 4.32 xFIP and 3.73 SIERA, though they are still BARTOLO’s 27th-ranked unit on the year.
Kevin Gausman has allowed 11 runs in 23 innings for the Cubs, but has done this with an 18.3 K-BB% and 68.8 LOB%. His 4.37 ERA sits above estimates ranging from a 3.12 Bot ERA (105 Pitching+) to a 3.86 xERA, suggesting his 67.6 LOB% on the season might be responsible for half a run's worth of ERA woes.
He does have an even lower ground ball rate than Abbott (38%), but considering the Reds normally play in one of the most power-friendly parks in the league and still only average a marginal .165 ISO among projected starters, it’s not too concerning.
The same Cincinnati lineup averages a 104 wRC+ on the road and 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days, but just 95 wRC+.
You probably know the Cubs have the best defense in the league with Saturday’s projected starters at 52 FRV. The bullpen has struggled over the last month (4.21 FIP, 4.42 xFIP, 4.16 SIERA), but still ranks 18th via BARTOLO, nine spots ahead of the Reds.
I have Gausman at least a clear run ahead of Abbott, with the offenses separated by about 25 points in wRC+. Add in a 60 FRV gap, and some minor bullpen discrepancies hardly begin to make up any of that.
For that last reason, though, I see more value in the F5 market and will be splitting to win 1.5 units on three separate plays here.
Picks: Cubs F5 -185, 1.11u | Bet to -225, Cubs -188, 0.75u | Bet to -215, Cubs Team Total Over 4.5 (-130), 0.63u | Bet to -160
