Twins vs. Diamondbacks MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Minnesota Matches Up Well With Madison Bumgarner (Friday, June 17)

Twins vs. Diamondbacks Odds

The American League Central-leading Twins head to Arizona for an interleague series at Chase Field against the Diamondbacks.

The Twins have played a 17-14 away record this season and have Devin Smeltzer on the mound Friday. The lefty has thrived on the road with a 2.87 ERA away from Target Field this season.

The Diamondbacks will counter with southpaw Madison Bumgarner, who has put together a very solid campaign at the age of 32 with a 3.50 ERA.

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Twins Lineup Looks To Back Smeltzer

Minnesota was a trendy preseason pick to return to the postseason after adding Carlos Correa, although most people noted that Byron Buxton needed to remain healthy.

Well, it's working out so far. The Twins' starting pitching has been solid, while the lineup has produced well.

Byron Buxton has been tremendous at the plate and in center field, Carlos Correa has thrived when healthy, and Luis Arraez could be making a surprising trip to the All-Star game in a couple weeks. That trio powers a Twins lineup that has remained very productive over the last month, batting to a 117 wRC+ rating with a .331 wOBA.

Correa and Buxton have an OPS of .884 and .881 against lefties this season. The Twins lineup as a whole has done well against southpaws in 2022. The Twins have hit most effectively against cutters, fastballs and curveballs, which means they match up very well against Bumgarner.

Smeltzer has been surprisingly strong with a 2.38 ERA, although his 3.75 xERA suggests regression is coming. That isn't overly surprising for a guy who has relatively average stuff and has never been this good in three MLB seasons.

Smeltzer's 4.19 QOPA also suggests he may not be as good as his ERA suggests. Over a larger sample size, it seems likely we'll see teams thrive more against him.

The Twins would happily take middling results from Smeltzer moving forward this season however with the other arms in the rotation, and a modest start Friday could still leave the Twins in a good position in a favorable matchup.

Don't Expect Bumgarner To Improve

While Smeltzer clearly isn't the ace his numbers suggest, Arizona may not be the most likely team to hang some crooked numbers up against him.

The D'backs have been the league's second-worst squad against left-handed pitching, with 82 wRC+ and a .289 wOBA.

Ketel Marte's absence would further hinder Arizona's ability to hit lefties. He's already one of the D'backs' best hitters, but he also has done well against southpaws with an .810 OPS.

Bumgarner started the season well, but regression always seemed likely. Not surprisingly, he has a 5.03 ERA over his last five starts.

Bumgarner's stuff surely is not what it once was, which is clear based on his lowly 3.79 QOPA this season. There isn't much optimism that he'll improve as the season progresses.

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Twins-Diamondbacks Pick

Minnesota's powerful lineup has hit left-handed pitching quite well this season. Even though Smeltzer might be slightly overvalued, I don't see how this game is priced so closely.

Bumgarner appears quite likely to post very modest results throughout the rest of the season, and I think we'll see Minnesota get to the aging lefty tonight.

I see some value with the over and would certainly never be playing the under in this matchup, but my favorite play is backing the Twins to win. I'd play the Twins down to -140, barring significant absences from the lineup.

Pick:  Twins -130 (Play to -140)