How Tyler Glasnow’s Impending Tommy John Surgery Changes Rays’ Playoff, Odds Outlook

How Tyler Glasnow’s Impending Tommy John Surgery Changes Rays’ Playoff, Odds Outlook article feature image
Credit:

Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Glasnow

Tyler Glasnow will likely need Tommy John surgery that may keep him out until the 2023 season, ESPN reported on Saturday.

While there was only slight optimism that Glasnow could have returned from his injury, the news is still a blow to the Rays, who have become a middle-of-the-pack starting pitching team since Glasnow went down in June.

The 27-year-old has had a 2.66 ERA over 88 innings this season to go along with 123 strikeouts.

He has dealt with various injury troubles since the 2019 season — a breakout year in which he had 1.78 ERA over 12 starts.

Even with the news, the Rays’ odds to make the playoffs, win their division, win the pennant and win the World Series did not change substantially.

For reference, FanGraphs gave the Rays a 78.2% chance to make the playoffs and a 30.7% chance to win the division on Friday. Those odds dipped to 77.2% and 29.7% on Saturday, respectively.

Their odds on FanDuel to win the pennant lengthened from +500 to +600 and their odds to win the World Series lengthened from +1200- to +1500.

But, weirdly enough, their odds to win the division at the sportsbook shortened from +140 to +120. The Boston Red Sox remained -125 favorites at FanDuel to win their first AL East since 2018.

At PointsBet, the Rays’ odds to win the division remained unchanged at +150. The Red Sox, too, stayed as -140 favorites to win the division. The Rays’ odds to win the pennant lengthened from +550 to +650 and their line to win it all lengthened from +1400 to +1500.

The Rays’ odds to win the AL East has actually shortened at DraftKings since Friday, moving from +150 to +140. The Red Sox’s odds moved from -145 to -125.

There, the Rays’ odds to win the pennant got better (+600 to +550) and their line to win the World Series remained the same.

Tampa’s odds to make the playoffs also remained the same at -550 yes, +400 no.

The must-have app for MLB bettors

The best MLB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

How would you rate this article?