White Sox vs Mariners MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet The Over on This Team Total (Wednesday, September 7)

White Sox vs. Mariners Odds

Seattle's push to end the longest playoff drought in North American big-four sports will continue Wednesday as the Mariners host the White Sox for the rubber match in a battle pitting Luis Castillo against Michael Kopech.

Castillo has been spectacular throughout his tenure with the Mariners, and in turn, the Mariners will be heavy favorites to build on its 99.6% chance (FanGraphs) of ending the playoff slump.

Chicago will counter with Michael Kopech, who has offered a mixed bag of results throughout 2022 but certainly features the stuff to dominate when in top form.

Will Kopech return in top form on Wednesday?

Lots of Questions with White Sox's Kopech

Chicago has seen its starters pitch 13 of 18 innings to begin this series, which could be a relevant note entering Kopech's start Wednesday.

One would assume that Kopech is fully healthy and ready to go if returning so soon and with teams now yielding expanded rosters. However, it's hard to say that for certain, especially looking toward the White Sox.

Kopech entered the game on Aug. 22 immediately displaying significantly below-average velocity before ultimately recording zero outs and allowing three walks and a single in four at-bats, and eventually four earned runs when Jimmy Lambert failed to clean up the mess.

Kopech has thrown two bullpen sessions since the injury but may still face workload limitations Wednesday, and checking updates for any official word on that is certainly relevant.

Even still, Kopech has pitched into the seventh inning in just one of his last 16 starts, and excluding the disastrous Kansas City start, he has still allowed an ERA of 4.50 over his last 10 outings.

Kopech has more consistently displayed poor command as the season has run along, and the outright dominance we saw to begin the campaign seems to be a thing of the past. Altogether, he now holds a notable xFIP of 4.84 on the campaign.

Over the last 30 days, Chicago's bullpen has struggled to a 5.24 ERA and an xFIP of 4.17, and both of those marks are in the bottom third of the league during that span.

Should the White Sox go down early and need to bridge some mid-innings, we could see some very middling arms from Chicago, and a solid start from Kopech will be counted on in this spot against Luis Castillo and an elite Mariners bullpen.

Seattle Mariners' Bats Warming Up

Seattle has won 15 of its last 20 games and has seen hitters contribute consistently with a 108 wRC+ and .408 slug-rate during that span.

The Mariners have been effective in splits against right-handed pitching this season with a wRC+ of 104.

Seattle has also hit fastballs very effectively with a +16.6 pitch value.

The Mariners will remain without Dylan Moore, who was sidelined on Aug. 28, but they should have essentially the A lineup versus a righty starter on Wednesday.

White Sox-Mariners Pick

With a game total of 7, a seven-inning line of -200, and listed at -115 to record a win, Castillo is heavily favored by the books to record another dominant start on Wednesday.

I am a little weary that this could be somewhat of a high-water mark for Castillo, however, and that a less dominant start is coming soon. I'm also concerned that those prices could be starting to get pretty heavily juiced to make plays there.

Kopech's situation seems a little hard to read, and I think therefore prior to seeing what kind of stuff he will have today and news about a potential pitch count, putting down heavy action doesn't make much sense.

But my favorite available play on the contest is backing the Mariners over 4 runs at -105 (Caesars). That team total number seems fair even should Kopech be near top-form and or able to throw around 100 pitches.

Pick: Seattle Mariners Over 4 Runs -105 (Play 4 to -110)