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White Sox vs. Red Sox Odds, Pick & Prediction: Both Offenses on Verge of Breakthrough (May 8)

White Sox vs. Red Sox Odds, Pick & Prediction: Both Offenses on Verge of Breakthrough (May 8) article feature image

Via Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Rafael Devers.

  • The White Sox and Red Sox will take the field Sunday for a matinee at Fenway Park.
  • Both offenses have struggled lately, but may breakthrough on Sunday.
  • Nick Martin shares his best bets below.

White Sox vs. Red Sox Odds

White Sox Odds +115
Red Sox Odds -140
Over/Under 8.5
Time 11:35 a.m. ET
TV Peacock
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Boston will enter Sunday’s contest looking to avoid a series sweep and snap a four-game losing skid.

Saturday’s 3-1 loss offered several narratives Red Sox fans are already far too familiar with in the 2022 campaign, as the team simply could not find any clutch hitting and saw the bullpen cough up a crucial late run before the ultimate 10th inning collapse.

Boston will send Michael Wacha, who has been a bright spots and boasts a sterling 3-0 record with a 1.39 ERA, to the mound.

The White Sox will counter with Dallas Keuchel, who has been lit up this season to the tune of an 8.40 ERA with a 1-3 record.

Could this be a great spot for the Red Sox to find some positive regression offensively?

Chicago White Sox: If Offense on Verge of Breakthrough?

Similar to Boston, Chicago is in search of better offensive production and more timely hitting. The White Sox went 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position on Saturday after going 1-for-9 in Friday’s series opener.

Chicago has hit to just a 77 wRC+ rating against right-handed pitching this season and has a .268 wOBA.  The White Sox will face a tough righty in Michael Wacha on Sunday while they look to improve those numbers.

However, Chicago has a 44.1% hard-hit rate this season and hold the league’s third highest xSLG rate at .495. It seems the production we expected from this lineup should come soon.

Dallas Keuchel has pitched to an xERA of 5.03 this season and it certainly seems that this is simply a guy who is well passed his prime. He has been a great fade target in the early going this year with lines holding surprisingly close.

Keuchel’s heavily diminished fastball velocity and low spin rates have left hardly any batter’s fooled. He’s pitched to just a 9.4% K-rate with a 13.4% walk rate.

Boston Red Sox: Lineup Ready to Start Producing

After having one of the more productive offenses in baseball last season, Boston figured to again be quite strong in that regard this year as most of the key pieces remained on the roster.

However, Boston went 1-for-9 with RISP on Saturday and showed poor situational hitting in a big spot in the eighth inning.

Trevor Story’s struggles may continue long-term and there are certainly some guys currently offering easy outs. However, I still think this group has offered some positives at the plate recently and is simply destined to find better production.

I felt the Red Sox had a far better process Saturday than the boxscore would indicate against one of the league’s better arms in Dylan Cease. Boston will face a significantly easier target in Dallas Keuchel on Sunday.

Boston hold the 13th best hard-hit rate at 39.6% and the 15th-best xSLG at .426. Even if the Red Sox relatively proven lineup doesn’t start to play better, which is reasonable to expect, the underlying numbers suggest more balls are likely to drop soon.

Michael Wacha has impressed this season at age 30, pitching to an xERA of 3.17. Wacha has managed to cover up for his lesser spin-rate and fastball velocity with strong command and artful pitching, but it still seems a very logical conclusion that his results should not be this improved compared to what we saw in 2021.


White Sox-Red Sox Pick

Dallas Keuchel is a perfect target for Boston to find some positive regression. I think we are going to see the Red Sox get their bats going early off Keuchel and then keep rolling from there.

However, considering the Red Sox bullpen concerns and my belief that Wacha is going to slow up to an extent, the White Sox will likely manage a steady offensive output themselves.

Both teams have left a ridiculous amount of runners on base in this series and have struggled with runners in scoring position. I think both will breakthrough with better numbers Sunday, but I’m specifically eying the Red Sox to hang a crooked number up.

I believe this is a good opportunity to bank on a big Red Sox output and make a long-shot play on the over of 8.5, parlayed with the Red Sox moneyline at +235.

However if you wanted to play it a little safer, going with just the over 8.5 would also be very reasonable and I see value there.

Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline + Over 8.5 +235

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