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MLB Odds & Picks for Yankees vs. Orioles: High-Scoring Game Expected in Baltimore

MLB Odds & Picks for Yankees vs. Orioles: High-Scoring Game Expected in Baltimore article feature image
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  • The Yankees have won 10 of 14 in the season series vs. the Orioles, but there's another way to bet this matchup.
  • New York has major bullpen issues right now, while Baltimore has Jordan Lyles on the hill in a bad matchup.
  • Kenny Ducey dives into the AL East affair and offers up his best bet.

Yankees vs. Orioles Odds

Yankees Odds -250
Orioles Odds +190
Over/Under 8.5
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The season series between the Yankees and Orioles has been exciting and drama-filled — despite the fact that New York has taken 10 of the 14 contests.

Still, Saturday’s showdown should be no different.

Gerrit Cole will take the ball for New York, as it looks to string together its first winning streak of the second half. Cole will be opposite Jordan Lyles of Baltimore.

Where’s the value here? Let’s answer that question below.

Can the Yanks’ Bullpen Hold Up?

The Yankees may have won on Friday night, but they suffered a massive loss in the process. Michael King — their iron man who had pitched to a 2.29 ERA in 51 1/3 innings — left late with what looked to be a nasty elbow injury.

The effects were immediately felt considering Aroldis Chapman had just come in with a four-run lead and allowed a three-run homer. If New York is forced to lean on the graying reliever in high-leverage situations again, things could turn ugly.

The Yankees have the second-best bullpen ERA in the game as it stands right now, but with Chapman struggling, Miguel Castro on the IL and Zack Britton still out, this once-feared unit isn’t looking all that scary.

On top of that, Clay Holmes was used for a five-out save on Friday. Despite the fact that he threw just 18 pitches, it’s possible — in wake of King’s injury — that the Yankees elect to take it easy with their All-Star closer.

Luckily, Cole has been pretty lights-out this year. His strikeout rate still stands at an elite 32.9%, and his expected batting average is at a very low .206.

He did manage to work through the Orioles’ order rather easily back in April — when he allowed two runs over seven frames — but the next time out, he yielded five over eight with 11 strikeouts.


Does Orioles’ Lineup Have Advantage Over Cole?

The Orioles will put their faith in Lyles, who couldn’t be any different from Cole. His strikeout rate remains microscopic at 19.3%, and his expected batting average of .272 is well above the league average.

He’s getting shelled, pitching to an 11.5% barrel rate, which ranks in the bottom 8% of the league. That would seem to indicate he’s going to be giving up more home runs in the coming months.

Cole is primarily a fastball pitcher, throwing his four-seamer over 50% of the time and leaning on it in crucial moments as a put-away pitch.

That should work in the Orioles’ favor, considering they rank first in the league with 1.05 weighted runs per 100 fastballs.

It’ll be interesting to see if Cole deviates at all, but given the fact that his fastball has made him a dominant force, I’d expect him to still use the pitch.

Also throwing a wrench into this matchup is the fact that the Orioles have the 10th-best strikeout rate in the game offensively at 22.5%. They have done an excellent job of getting the bat on the ball and can also boast a decent enough 8% walk rate.

Yankees-Orioles Pick

Lyles has been rather successful in his last two starts against the Yankees, with five earned runs in two starts. But back in April, he allowed six across 4 2/3 innings. What’s more, the last time he faced the Yankees in May he allowed two home runs.

This is a terrible matchup for Lyles, and the history here would indicate there’s a good chance the Yankees tee off on him again.

On the other side of things, I’m not sure Cole will make it out of here unscathed — given what we’ve said about the Orioles’ ability to hit fastballs and given Cole’s track record against Baltimore.

This is a very talented offense, and it will likely make the Yankees’ starter work hard enough that the team is forced to lean on its bruised bullpen.

I like a lot of runs to be scored. 

Pick: Over 8.5

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