MLB Odds, Picks and Predictions (Monday, July 26): Yankees vs. Phillies

Credit:

Rich Schultz/Getty Image. Pictured: Jake Arrieta

Editor’s Note: Monday’s Yankees vs. Phillies game has been cancelled as a result of the Marlins’ COVID-19 outbreak. The Marlins finished their series in Philadelphia yesterday (using the clubhouse and dugout that would’ve been occupied by the Yankees tonight), and their Monday matchup with the Orioles in Baltimore has also been cancelled.


Yankees vs. Phillies Betting Odds

Yankees Odds -155
Phillies Odds +135
Over/Under 10 (-113/-108)
First Pitch Monday, 7:05 p.m. ET

Odds as of Sunday at 10 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


The Yankees finished strong on Sunday, winning, 3-2, against the Nationals to take their opening series. Philadelphia was disappointing to start the season, dropping its first series against the lowly Marlins.

The Phillies also now have a lot of concerns with the bullpen, which was called on for six innings on Sunday, and they’ll need to rebound if they want to keep pace in a loaded NL East division.

Yankees Preview

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The Yankees lineup is loaded yet again this season, with a ton of power. They’ve already hit four home runs in their first three games — half of them coming courtesy of Giancarlo Stanton.

They were the second-best offense a season ago in terms of wRC+, and they didn’t struggle with any pitch type. The Yanks ranked inside the top 10 in weighted runs for every single pitch type in 2019. New York was able to keep the core of its roster together and will be a difficult lineup for Jake Arrieta to navigate.

Yankees Probable Starter 

J.A. Happ, LHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

In 2019, J.A. Happ was starting to show his age. The 37-year-old posted a 4.78 ERA/5.22 FIP/4.78 xFIP — his worst numbers in more than five years. Happ is predominantly a fastball pitcher, but has three complimentary pitches that play well off his fastball.

Since he is getting up there in age, his fastball is losing its velocity and effectiveness. In 2019, his fastball yielded 25 home runs and a .367 wOBA. For Happ’s secondary pitches to be effective, he has to be precise with his fastball, otherwise he’ll continue to post high ERA and xFIP numbers in 2020.

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Phillies Preview

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

After being shut down on opening day, the Phillies’ offense has come alive, scoring 13 runs on 19 hits over their last two games. However, those two games were against the Marlins, so take those results with a grain of salt.

After adding Bryce Harper last season, the Phillies didn’t do much to their lineup over the offseason. They ranked near the middle of MLB last season against lefties, so they should be able to hit an aging J.A. Happ.

Phillies Probable Starter

Jake Arrieta, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Arrieta has taken a big step back since joining the Phillies. The reason for that is his sinker is a lot less effective than it used to be.

During his breakout season in 2015, Arrieta was dominant with his sinker, allowing only a .191 BA and a .236 wOBA to his opponents. Fast forward to 2019, and he allowed a .304 BA and a .366 wOBA against his sinker. However, his changeup and curveball were pretty effective in 2019 with a wOBA against below .275.

He’ll have to use those two pitches more in 2020 if he wants to get back to some semblance of his 2015 season.

Bullpens 

The Yankees have one of the best 7th-9th inning bullpen combos in the league. However, beyond those three it’s a bunch of average relievers. The front end of the Phillies’ bullpen is solid, but their back end isn’t that great, so the Yankees bullpen has the advantage in this matchup.

Projections and Pick

Based on my projections, I think the starting pitching matchup is dead even, so there is some value in backing Arrieta and Phillies as +135 dogs.

Pick: Phillies +135 [Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

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