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Yankees vs. Pirates MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: A Matchup Ripe for Scoring (Tuesday, July 5)

Yankees vs. Pirates MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: A Matchup Ripe for Scoring (Tuesday, July 5) article feature image
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Joshua Bessex/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99).

Yankees vs. Pirates Odds

Yankees Odds -200
Pirates Odds +165
Over/Under 8.5
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The New York Yankees travel to Pittsburgh for a short, two-game series against the Pirates. The Pirates have been surprisingly testy at times this season, but they may be in over their heads with the Yankees in town. On the bright side, it’s only two games.

Jameson Taillon makes his return to Pittsburgh as he makes the start for the Yankees. He sports a 9-1 record this season and a 3.32 ERA coming into Tuesday’s start.

Jose Quintana, who is enjoying a nice season in Pittsburgh, will oppose Taillon. Despite being 1-4, Quintana has a 3.43 ERA and may find himself on a contender come the trade deadline.

Let’s take a look at both sides of today’s matchup and decide how to bet it.

Yankees Dominate in Road Games

The Yankees have been seemingly unstoppable this season, but they are also bona fide road warriors with a 24-13 record away from the Bronx this season. They lead the league in road wRC+ and over the past month, they lead the league in wRC+ on the road against LHP. This does not bode well for Jose Quintana.

Jameson Taillon has also been a road warrior in his own regard, pitching his way to a 2.70 road ERA with a 3.29 road FIP.  He may have a little extra motivation returning to Pittsburgh, but for some reason it seems like this may be something that works against him.

Additionally, Taillon has had relatively unremarkable starts his last two times out. He struggled against the Houston Astros before battling through five innings against a relatively weak Oakland A’s offense his last start.

If Taillon gets into trouble, the Yankees’ bullpen has been solid over the past few weeks finding themselves in the top five in ERA and the top 10 in FIP. They have been an incredibly reliable unit this season.


Can Pittsburgh’s Offense Step Up?

Although the Pirates’ reputation precedes them, they have been a pretty feisty group this season. Quintana has led the pitching staff and he’s really enjoyed pitching at PNC Park.

So far this season Quintana has a 3.15 ERA and a 3.37 FIP in nine home starts. This includes quality innings against some really good offenses. However the Yankees’ offense may be his biggest test to date.

Unfortunately, the Pirates’ bullpen has been in disarray the past few weeks, landing in the bottom ten in FIP and bottom three in ERA over that time period.

However, the Pirates’ young offense has fared relatively well at home against RHP over the past few weeks. They have posted a 113 team wRC+ over that time frame, which is good for 10th in MLB.

Yankees-Pirates Pick

While the Yankees seem like a lock to win every game, Taillon has scuffled his past two starts. A return to Pittsburgh may be added motivation, but it could also result in a situation where he presses and doesn’t execute like normal. You never know how a pitcher is going to react in a situation like that.

One thing we do know however, is that the pitching situations on both sides should result in some scoring, and the Yankees are fully capable of carrying a total on their own.

The total is set on most books at 8.5 runs and the over looks like a solid play here. If you can get 8.5 around -120, that’s a decent deal, but pushing to 9 and getting it in plus money is in play a well.

Pick: Over 8.5 -120

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