Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal Odds
| Sterling Odds | +114 |
| Zalal Odds | -135 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-180/+140) |
| Location | Apex Center, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 117 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 117 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal prediction for UFC Vegas 117 on Saturday, April 25, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas for a 13-fight card, featuring an important showdown in the 145-pound featherweight division between former bantamweight champion and current No. 5 featherweight contender Aljamain Sterling and No. 7-ranked Youssef Zalal.
Sterling is 2-1 since moving up in weight, with wins over Brian Ortega and Calvin Kattar, sandwiched between a competitive loss to unbeaten Movsar Evloev. Saturday's bout will mark his seventh main event or five-round fight in the UFC; he's 4-0 when his fights have reached the championship rounds (that record does include his disqualification win over Petr Yan, in their first fight).
Zalal will enter his first career five-round fight or main event on an eight-fight winning streak, since his first stint with the promotion (3-3-1) ended in 2022. Zalal has finished four of his five UFC wins since his return, and his prior stint was notable for a competitive loss to Ilia Topuria, easily the most competitive fight Topuria has had in the UFC (Zalal won the third round unanimously).
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 117 Main Event on Saturday and use those factors to bet on these featherweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 10:45 p.m. ET (7:45 p.m. PT) on Saturday evening.
Here's my Sterling vs. Zalal pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Sterling | Zalal | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-5 | 18-5-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:54 | 11:32 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 7/31/1989 | 9/04/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.45 | 3.03 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.21 | 1.78 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 66% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.45 | 2.17 |
| TD Acc | 30% | 31% |
| TD Def | 44% | 59% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 1.4 |
Youssef Zalal is seven years younger than Aljamain Sterling, and he's also the bigger athlete (3" taller, 1" reach advantage) and the more natural Featherweight, having spent the vast majority of his career at 145 pounds.
Zalal's physicality, strength, and finishing aggression have also improved drastically since his first UFC stint; he looks like a completely different fighter than the outside-point-fighting kickboxer the UFC let go for an unexciting style.
Still, while Zalal has successfully forced the grappling and finished fights via submission in his recent contests, that offensive path will be far more difficult to come by against Sterling, who is almost certainly the better wrestler and grappler in this matchup. Their grappling stats are strikingly similar: Aljo has generated a 65% control rate while averaging 5.2 takedown attempts per five minutes (31% accuracy; 50 of 163); Zalal is at 61% control, 4.7 takedowns per five minutes, and 32% accuracy (20 of 63).
Neither has shown great takedown defense, however, as both are happy to grapple. If Zalal shoots first, Sterling (45% takedown defense) may be happy to try to reverse position from bottom. Still, I'd expect Aljamain to put Zalal (59% takedown defense) on his back within the first couple of rounds of the fight.
The striking stats for both fighters are remarkably similar too; Sterling has outlanded opponents by 2.4 strikes per minute at distance, compared to Zalal's 2.2.
Still, you should contextualize all of those numbers by noting that Aljamain has faced a far more difficult schedule of opponents and has generated that data over nearly double the number of UFC bouts (22 to 12) as Zalal. And if any fighter is having extended success at holding the other down, it will be Sterling, particularly if he can get to Zalal's back and lock in a body triangle.
Zalal is the more powerful man and also has a durability edge, but Sterling can frustrate opponents from the outset with his pace and style. "The Funk Master" is known for his wrestling. Still, his dynamic striking style is incredibly underrated, and his opponents' volume is often suppressed early as they try to figure out his pressure and tempo.
Still, Sterling lacks power, particularly at Featherweight; he has never scored a knockdown in his UFC career, and Zalal has the better chin, too. If Zalal is also the faster man on the feet, as is possible given the age gap between the fighters, then Sterling will have to wrestle successfully to win the fight.
If Aljamain has success in this matchup, I'd expect it to be frontloaded, by overwhelming Zalal with volume or landing takedowns and consolidating position.
Although this is his first five-round test, I would expect Zalal to have more success the longer the fight goes, particularly if he's able to deny takedown attempts from Aljo, or scamble back to his feet after getting put on the mat.
As a result, regardless of your pre-fight positioning, I would monitor the live line for Zalal; the best price may come after ten to fifteen minutes, with Zalal potentially trailing 2-1 going into the championship rounds.
I have always been a fan of both fighters, but I do think Zalal's recent form has been flattered by the stylistic matchups; outgrappling opponents who have since retired, been cut by the promotion, or look to be near the end of their careers. And while Sterling may ultimately fall into that final bucket if Zalal knocks him out, he hasn't shown any concerns in form since moving up in weight. Cutting less weight should also help his gas tank to last for 25 minutes.
Sterling vs. Zalal Pick, Prediction
I projected Aljamain Sterling as a 50.8% favorite in this matchup, and I would bet his moneyline down to +105 (48.8% implied) pre-fight, at a two-percent edge compared to my projected line.
However, as I mentioned above, I would begin monitoring the live market for an entry on Zalal after Round 2, with the best timing potentially coming after Round 3, as the market may overweight Sterling's five-round experience as compared to Zalal's youth.
I set the fight to reach a decision around 57% of the time, and don't project an actionable edge on either side of the totals or the distance prop (projected -132 Yes, +132 no); however, I align closer to expecting the fight to end inside the distance (listed +135), as opposed to reaching a decision (listed -165).
Sean's Picks: Aljamain Sterling +118 (BetRivers) | Youssef Zalal Live after Round 2
