Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC Sacramento on Saturday, August 22

Check out my Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues prediction for UFC Sacramento on Saturday, August 22, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues Garry Odds

On Saturday, the UFC returns to California, the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, for a 13-fight card, featuring an important main event in the middleweight division between No. 7-ranked contender and Northern California native Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez and No. 10-ranked Brazilian Gregory "Robocop" Rodrigues.

Hernandez will look to bounce back from a main event loss in February to current champion Sean Strickland. He owns a 10-3 professional record, which included an eight-fight winning streak prior to his most recent loss. His style is built for five-round fights; Hernandez owns a 2-1 record in main events, including a pair of finishes in the championship rounds.

Rodrigues also owns a 10-3 promotional record and enters on a three-fight winning streak. He is a more explosive athlete than Hernandez and has finished 15 of his 19 wins inside the distance, including 10 inside the first round. However, Rodrigues tired in the fourth round of his lone main event test against Jared Cannonier in February of last year.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Sacramento Main Event on Saturday night and use those factors to bet on these middleweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 10:45 p.m. ET (7:45 p.m. PT) on Saturday night.

Here's my Hernandez vs. Rodrigues pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Gregory Rodrigues is the bigger man (3" reach advantage) and the more powerful athlete than Anthony Hernandez; he is an extremely muscled-up middleweight and clearly cuts a decent amount in order to make the 186-pound limit, but cutting that much off of his frame can leave him drained – and cause him to slow – in the latter part of extended fights.

And there are few fighters on the roster who are more adept at tiring their opponents out and taking advantage of that fatigue than Hernandez, who has proven himself as one of the most proactive grapplers in the history of the sport, averaging 11.3 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance (48% accuracy), while controlling opponents in 82% of positions.

Rodrigues is a world-class grappler – an eight-time national jiu-jitsu champion and multiple-time world champion – who has also trained with the Brazilian wrestling team and placed at an international competition. In fact, he hasn't grappled offensively as much as he probably should (2.4 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance, 36% accuracy, 73% control rate), likely because it drains his stamina faster.

Rodrigues is both a dangerous and efficient striker (+0.8 to -0.7 significant strike differential over Hernandez per minute at distance), but he tends to leave his head on the center line (50% striking defense), and he's not the most durable man. Still, Hernandez is one of the few middleweights who may not possess enough power in his hands to put Rodrigues out with one punch; in order to win this fight, he's going to have to exhaust Rodrigues with pace and pressure and drag him into deeper waters.

Rodrigues should be the more dangerous man from the outset, and he should look to target Hernandez to the body, where he has shown much less durability than he has with head strikes. Kevin Holland and Sean Strickland finished Hernandez with body shots, and Michel Pereira also hurt him to the body in their main event clash.

The five-round format favors Hernandez's cardio and grinding style – it gives him more time to win in the back half of the fight even if Rodrigues is dominating early minutes – but he could be up against it from the opening bell if he isn't able to land and consolidate takedowns against a well-rounded opponent. Rodrigues hasn't faced many opponents who have tried to wrestle him, but he is also the most credentialed grappler Hernandez has faced, which makes this matchup particularly intriguing.

The Strickland fight was a weird look for Hernandez, who only attempted one takedown in 12.5 minutes of fight time. Still, after losing that fight, Hernandez spent most of his recent camp with Strickland at Xtreme Couture, and I expect him to revert to an optimal game plan against Robocop.

He may not have success from the opening bell – Rodrigues carries much more power and may be difficult to take down early- but if Hernandez fights an educated, attrition-oriented game plan and forces Rodrigues to maintain a high work rate throughout, he should give himself a chance to rally with a significant cardio advantage in the middle and championship rounds of this fight.

As a result, regardless of your pre-fight position, I would fish for a live bet on Hernandez anytime after Round 1, with the peak price potentially coming during or after Round 2.

Hernandez vs. Rodrigues Prediction, Picks

I projected Anthony Hernandez as a -155 favorite (60.8% implied odds) in this matchup, and I would either bet the underdog, Rodrigues, at +170, or pass on a side from a pre-fight perspective.

I expect the fight to end within distance around 76% of the time (-313 implied odds) and don't see an edge on the totals or distance props.

Additionally, I don't project an edge on any of the potential winning methods; Rodriguez inside the distance (projected +225, listed +215) is just out of range, but you can consider his odds to win in Round 1 (+600) or Round 2 (+1000) instead.

If you like the Hernandez side, you can sprinkle his odds to win in Round 4 (+1200) or Round 5 (+1600) while waiting for a live entry on his moneyline.

Alternatively, or in addition, consider a Same-Game Parlay (SGP) with Hernandez and Over 2.5 Rounds (+150).

In the prop market, bet Hernandez Over 3.5 takedowns up to 4.5 (-110); my model set his line at 4.8 for this matchup. Additionally, consider Hernandez Under 49.5 Significant Strikes (projected 36.3), which provides some coverage in the event of a quick knockout loss.

Sean Zerillo's UFC Sacramento Best Bets

• Anthony Hernandez Live Anytime after Round 1
• Anthony Hernandez wins in Round 4 +1200 (FanDuel)
• Anthony Hernandez wins in Round 5 +1600 (FanDuel)
• Anthony Hernandez Over 3.5 Takedowns -150 (DraftKings)
• Anthony Hernandez Under 49.5 Significant Strikes -115 (Caesars)

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