Check out my Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry prediction for UFC 330 on Saturday, August 15, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry Odds
| Makhachev Odds | -340 |
| Garry Odds | +270 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-180/+140) |
| Location | Xfinity Arena, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania |
| Bout Time | 11:30 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 330 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 330 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, for a 12-fight card, featuring a pair of title fights – the first welterweight title defense for Islam Makhachev and the first strawweight defense for Mackenzie Dern.
Makhachev, the promotion's No. 1 ranked pound-for-pound fighter, enters on a 16-fight winning streak since a knockout loss in his second UFC bout in 2015 to Adriano Martins.
Ian Machado Garry owns a 10-1 promotional record, with his lone loss coming in a five-round title eliminator in December 2024 against unbeaten but currently injured contender Shavkat Rakhmonov.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 330 Main Event on Saturday night and use those factors to bet on these welterweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 11:30 p.m. ET (8:30 p.m. PT) on Saturday night.
Here's my Makhachev vs. Garry pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Garry is the bigger man (5" taller, 4" reach advantage) and the natural welterweight in this matchup. In contrast, Makhachev spent most of his career fighting as a bit of a weight bully at Lightweight before moving up to take the 170-pound belt off Jack Della Maddalena last November.
On paper, Garry is the superior striker by the numbers, outlanding opponents by 2.7 significant strikes per minute at distance, compared to a margin of +0.9 for Makhachev, while fighting at a higher pace (6.2 to 3.4 landed per minute).
However, Makhachev is the superior grappler, attempting 4.5 takedowns per five minutes at distance, landing more than half of those shots (56%) and subsequently controlling opponents for 86% of his grappling time.
Garry relied more on offensive grappling during his regional career, but has spent most of his UFC minutes on the feet (62%, compared to 13% for Makhachev).
He has shown excellent takedown defense (denied 24 of 30 takedowns, 80%) to this point in his promotional run, but did get stuck both against the fence and on his back in his lone loss to Shavkat (ceded 11:41 of control time) – and Makhachev will be happy to neutralize the lanky striker in the same positions.
Garry has spent a significant part of his training camps in Brazil over the past 2.5 years, and he's spent a lot of time during this camp working with former ADCC winner and future UFC Hall of Famer Demian Maia, who, as a 6′ middleweight, has probably done his best to mimic Makhachev's tendencies.
Garry is arguably the largest athlete that Makhachev has faced, as Della Maddalena is a lightweight-sized welterweight (5'11", 73" reach), and two of Islam's lightweight title defenses came against featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski (5'6", 71" reach).
I do worry that Garry's size can work against him if Makhachev can get him to the mat – longer limbs give Makhachev more surface area to grab onto – but I expect him to be difficult for Makhachev to maneuver, particularly if the fight extends and both fighters tire out.
Makhachev's win over Dustin Poirier (5'9", 72" reach) remains an awkward look; he struggled to land takedowns (5-of-16, 10:33 control) relative to expectations against a smaller man with questionable takedown defense (64% career), and he clearly tired as the fight extended due to all of that wasted effort.
However, Makhachev still secured the fifth-round submission (he led 39-37 on two scorecards and was tied 36-36 on the third going into round five), and he's now cutting less weight to make 170.
Relative to Poirier, Garry is both significantly bigger and seven years Makhachev's junior. He has range weapons to land on his opponent from the outside, and if he's able to force Makhachev to really work for takedowns from clinch positions, he may be able to keep this fight standing down the stretch and pull away on minutes.
Makhachev's striking has improved drastically since his first UFC bout – his offensive grappling creates openings to land damage with punches and kicks. He arguably outstruck Poirier (landed 71 of 136 attempts to 51 of 157 for Poirier) and Della Maddalena (landed 20 of 41 attempts to 14 of 56 for JDM) after knocking out Volkanovski with a head kick.
Still, Garry's length and outside striking style may cause Makhachev issues – Garry excels at fighting off the back foot and countering. It is incumbent on the smaller champion to close the distance to initiate grappling exchanges.
Garry needs to stay on his bike, however — he can't he can't back himself up against the fence – as that will provide Makhachev with clean entries to generate control time or initiate takedowns.
Makhachev has incredible top pressure, and has proven himself a far more dangerous submission grappler and finisher than friend and teammate, Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Still, I tend to trust Garry's grappling base, and the extensive work he's put in during his time in Brazil with both Maia and Charles Oliveira's camp (Diego Lima Chute Box) to keep himself safe on bottom.
Makhachev has proven himself one of the best offensive grapplers in the promotion's history, and Garry hasn't often faced heavy wrestling pressure. Still, I am dubious Makhachev's pace and effectiveness can hold up at a size disadvantage.
Interestingly, the market has Garry as a smaller underdog for this fight than he closed against Rakhmonov (+370, 21.3% implied), and Makhachev has consistently been a heavy favorite for years (closed -1200 against Renato Moicano and -500 against Poirier).
The market has been accurate in its assessment of Garry, making him -275 against Belal Muhammad, -160 against Carlos Prates, and -182 against Michael Venom Page. The Prates win was the most impressive of his three most recent victories, but Garry is oft-maligned for his boring fighting style (and cringy personality).
Ultimately, public discontent with Garry's persona and fighting style – as well as betting against a potential UFC goat – should be factoring into the line here, and I do think his well-rounded skill set and championship potential have largely been underrated as a result of his being disliked.
The market was slightly skeptical of Makhachev's initial move to welterweight (opened -340, closed -280 against JD). I think Garry is a far more difficult matchup for him, as he can fight at distance where Makhachev cannot reach him, whereas JDM is a smaller boxer who needed to crash the pocket to land damage.
Makhachev vs. Garry Prediction, Picks
I projected Islam Makhachev as just under a 70% favorite in this fight (projected -221, or 68.8% implied) and as a result I show actionable value on the underdog, Ian Garry, at roughly +250 or better. You can probably wait until Saturday for the best price – the line continues to tick toward the favorite and may increase as parlay money comes in.
I don't project an actionable edge on the total; however, I would lean slightly toward the fight ending inside the distance (projected +120, listed +128) given the odds.
In the winning method market, I would consider either Garry by decision (projected +401, listed +430) or Garry by KO/TKO (projected +955, listed +1100) at a massive number.
I project Makhachev to win by decision (projected +189) or by submission (projected +280) as the likelier outcomes; however, both price targets fall well short of the listed odds (listed +125 and +230, respectively).
Beyond his underdog moneyline, I also like Garry to land more than 33.5 significant strikes; I don't see a big edge at that number, but my technical model projected his average significant strike output at 40 across all simulations.
Lastly, consider betting Garry +9.5 points (-110 at DraftKings); I like him to win at least one round in this fight without getting finished, and we'd still cover with three 49-46 scorecards for the champion.
Sean Zerillo's UFC 330 Best Bets
- Ian Garry ML (+300, Polymarket)
- Ian Garry Over 35.5 Significant Strikes (-115, DraftKings)
- Ian Garry +9.5 Points (-110, DraftKings)
