Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino Odds
| Spivac Odds | +130 |
| Petrino Odds | -155 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-210/+160) |
| Location | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Sacramento odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Sacramento with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino prediction for UFC Sacramento on Saturday, August 22, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Can Petrino make it four in a row in his new weight class, or can Spivac hold the line for the big boys?
Here's my Spivac vs. Petrino pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Spivac | Petrino | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-6 | 14-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:22 | 10:23 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 257 lbs. | 248 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 77" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 01/24/1995 | 08/28/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.57 | 3.24 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.23 | 2.71 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.82 | 2.60 |
| TD Acc | 59% | 46% |
| TD Def | 63% | 79% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.7 |
Brazilian Vitor Petrino came into the UFC with a fair amount of hype, picking up a knockout on the Contender Series, a fight of the night bonus in his debut, then three more wins with two finishes. Then he ran into Anthony Smith, losing by guillotine as a -500 favorite before being knocked out by Dustin Jacoby, again as a big favorite, in his next fight.
That was the point where he decided cutting weight wasn't for him, and by all accounts it's been a successful decision. Not only has Petrino looked much better physically at heavyweight, but the quality of competition is considerably lower, allowing him to quickly rise through the rankings.
Petrino has weighed in right around 250lbs for all four of his heavyweight matchups, so he's not really undersized in most matchups. For context, Spivac checked in at 251lbs for his two previous heavyweight fights and 257lbs this time, meaning they're separated by just nine lbs in this matchup, with Petrino giving up an inch in both height and reach. He more than makes up for that by being much quicker than most heavyweights, Spivac included.
While Petrino is relatively well-rounded, his speed and athleticism edge should make this a fairly binary matchup, with Petrino the superior striker and Spivac looking to grapple. Spivac has improbably failed to land a single knockdown across 15 UFC fights, with a negative overall striking differential despite running up his overall numbers with some ground and pound.
The grappling is where Spivac excels, with three wins via submission and three via ground and pound. Checking his record, many of those wins came against heavyweights with extremely limited grappling (Derrick Lewis, Greg Hardy, Tai Tuivasa, Jared Vanderaa), while he's struggled against fighters he's been unable to take or keep on the ground.
The question here is whether Spivac will have the offensive wrestling to take Petrino down, as well as the top control to keep the BJJ black belt there.
Petrino has only faced one grappler at heavyweight, former collegiate wrestler Thomas Petersen, who went 0 for 8 on takedown attempts against him. That was largely a function of Petrino using his footwork and distance management to force low-quality takedown attempts from range by Petersen, which will be the key for Petrino against Spivac as well. To his credit, the last time Petrino gave up a takedown was in his UFC debut, so I like his odds here.
With that said, Spivac can still win striking matches, and he took the first round unanimously from a smaller, faster heavyweight in Ante Delija without even attempting a takedown. He's not drawing completely dead on the feet in this matchup, but his odds go way up if he can grapple.
Spivac vs. Petrino Pick, Prediction
After watching some tape on Petrino at heavyweight, I was fairly comfortable betting his moneyline, but digging a bit deeper, I found a better path.
Spivac is 6-1 in the UFC in fights where he lands at least two takedowns, and his under 1.5 takedown prop is -135 — a better price than Petrino's -145 or so moneyline. Since I'd make the odds of Spivac winning without two takedowns about the same as him getting two or more and losing, they're roughly equivalent bets with a better price on one side.
For that reason, give me Spivac's under 1.5 takedowns at -135 via DraftKings, though I'd also be fine with Petrino's moneyline if you don't have access to the takedown prop, the line moves considerably, or you just want to diversify your exposure a bit.
Billy's Picks: Sergei Spivac Under 1.5 Takedowns -135 (DraftKings)
