Jalin Turner vs. Kaue Fernandes Odds
| Turner Odds | -162 |
| Fernandes Odds | +136 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+114/-145) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 330 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 330 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Jalin Turner vs. Kaue Fernandes prediction for UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
UFC 330 has a stacked main card that features a lightweight showdown between Jalin Turner and Kaue Fernandes.
Turner, who is the more experienced product, is coming off a quick win over veteran Edson Barboza after returning from a very short-lived retirement last year. Oddly enough, Turner is now tasked with taking on the second coming of the legendary leg-kicking Brazilian in Fernandes. Although Fernandes has slightly less UFC experience and exposure, the experienced Muay Thai marauder has proven that he's a certified killer on the feet that is appointment viewing.
Here's my Turner vs. Fernandes pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Turner | Fernandes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-9 | 11-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:38 | 9:32 |
| Height | 6'3" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 73" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 05/18/1995 | 03/17/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.79 | 4.28 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.54 | 1.42 |
| SS Defense | 41% | 62% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.75 | 1.88 |
| TD Acc | 55% | 100% |
| TD Def | 75% | 76% |
| Submission Avg | 1.1 | 0 |
From a style perspective, this is a battle between two skilled strikers who primarily operate out of opposite stances.
Looking like a southpaw Tommy Hearns, Turner is a southpaw-primary stance-switcher who is not beyond boxing more traditionally from an orthodox stance. That said, Turner undeniably does some of his best work out of southpaw.
Whether he's launching front teeps up the center line or countering in combination, Turner does a good job of changing up his target and varying shots well to the body. When feeling in stride, "The Tarantula" will mix in intercepting knees and elbows that work well on shorter opposition – but will need to be mindful in closed quarters.
Despite being the owner of a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt and an underrated front-choke game to boot, Turner's fights have tended to go south more often than not when grappling gets heavily introduced.
Luckily for the American, Fernandes, at least at first glance, appears to be the kind of fighter to give both Turner and the Philly fans the kind of fight they're looking for.
A product of Nova Uniao, Fernandes' game is built on a foundation of punch-and-clutch sensibilities that serve as built-in safeties. That said, Fernandes gets off a lot of action and damage for a fighter who is more than fine with fencing off his backfoot.
I'm not a big fan of backfoot fighting from a scoring perspective in modern MMA, but Fernandes has a game that arguably calls for it – something he seems to understand quite keenly.
Even though I wish Fernandes jabbed more, he likes to use his punches as counter-balancing threats off his wicked hard kicks. A Muay Thai practitioner since the age of five, Fernandes commands impeccably timed kicks and a dynamic arsenal out of both stances.
Not only does Fernandes have the ability to step off to southpaw shifts that set up leg kicks against lefties, but the Brazilian's boxing game is arguably better when operating opposite southpaws in open-stance affairs.
Fernandes' theme of leg dexterity continues down to his guard game, as the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt can hit everything from armbars to position-changing omoplatas. The Andre Pederneiras-trained fighter also has some solid takedowns from the clinch that he can work topside from (something that could serve him well in this contest).
Turner vs. Fernandes Pick, Prediction
Despite the oddsmakers opening the American as a slight favorite, public money has steadily pushed this to a pick'em line, listing Turner -120 and Fernandes +100 as of this writing.
Although I came in ready to give out Fernandes when the line was closer to the +125 range, the meat on the proverbial bone has largely been eaten up at most books, so I'll spare you what, at this point, is an even money bet at best.
I also got in a little earlier in case Turner, once again, showed up struggling on the scales – but no dice there as the skateboarding southpaw looked good yesterday.
For that reason, amongst others, I don't blame you if you don't feel like following me off a cliff when it comes to playing a side. I will point out props like "fight starts round 2" or "fight ends by knockout" being viable options, like Billy Ward and I discussed on the latest Action Netowrk UFC Betting Preview Podcast:
Despite total takedown markets being my metaphorical Mount Everest as far as prop betting goes, I believe that Fernandes achieving Overs isn't out of the question in victory or defeat.
Aside from the fact that caught kicks (regardless of a tripping factor) are typically counted as takedowns, Fernandes, as alluded to in the previous section, is a punch-and-clutch Nova Uniao product who will inherently close distance off of strikes and execute reactionary takedowns that are available.
Although Turner's size worries me from a moneyline perspective, moderate-to-large height differentials can encourage the shorter fighter to close in for takedowns due to the inherent anxiety alone.
Add in the fact that Fernandes is the type of guy to stand up off his own scored takedowns to leg kick and taunt his opponents back to their feet, and I'll gladly grab anything -120 or lower on him to land a takedown.
Dan's Picks: Kaue Fernandes Over 0.5 Takedowns +100 (DraftKings)
