Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando Odds
| Tobias Odds | +240 |
| Fernando Odds | -298 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+124/-160) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 330 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 330 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando prediction for UFC 330 on Saturday, July 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
We have an all-Brazil matchup on the undercard between a pair of Brazilians looking for their first UFC win. Rafael Tobias dropped his UFC debut following a dominant Contender Series victory, while Lucas Fernando lost on the Contender Series but gets a shot anyway following a four-fight winning streak that includes two LFA title wins.
The market has Fernando as a heavy favorite, but is that an overreaction to Tobias losing as a favorite in his debut, or do they have it right?
Here's my Tobias vs. Fernando pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Tobias | Fernando | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-2 | 13-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:23 | 15:00 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 81" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 03/20/2003 | 01/10/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.77 | 1.87 |
| SS Accuracy | 36% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.81 | 4.73 |
| SS Defense | 35% | 38% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| TD Acc | 33% | 30% |
| TD Def | 100% | N/A |
| Submission Avg | 1.6 | 1.0 |
The most notable thing about this fight is how binary it is, with Tobias needing to grapple and Fernando wanting to keep things standing.
Their official UFC stats are a bit misleading. Fernando faced Cesar Almeida, a former elite kickboxer with a win over Alex Pereira in that sport, on the Contender Series, and was no match for the more seasoned striker on the feet. However, watching his regional tape, he's clearly at his best when striking.
Following his Contender Series appearance, he was taken down at will in a decision loss to now-UFC fighter Azamat Bekoev, who was unable (or perhaps unwilling) to do much of substance on the ground. Outside of a cheeky half-guard sweep that Fernando hit multiple times (all of which ended in Bekoev escaping and taking him back down), he was fairly lost on the mat, though, with referee Jason Herzog standing him up more times than he escaped on his own.
That fight, his last loss, was in 2023. It's hard to say whether Fernando's success since then was due to improvement or more favorable matchmaking, with his two title fights both coming against primary strikers.
He looks great in those situations, though. He uses his 81" reach to great effect, jabbing at range and maintaining distance against shorter fighters, something that will serve him better in the full-sized UFC cage than it did in regional promotions. He has plenty of power in both his hands and his feet, with a classic kick-heavy Brazilian Muay Thai style.
On the other side of the cage, Tobias has shown plenty of promise with his grappling, but has been pretty badly outclassed when striking. His Contender Series fight came against a cardio kickboxing coach who had never beat an opponent with a winning record, and Tobias was still out struck on the feet before getting a takedown and eventual submission.
Then, in his UFC debut proper, Diyar Nurgozhay landed 94 of 143 significant strikes (65%) in a clear decision victory. Tobias landed a pair of takedowns on Nurgozhay, but was unable to control him on the ground long enough to swing any rounds definitively his way.
On the plus side, Tobias is still just 23, and was only 20 when he suffered his only career stoppage loss. It's logical to project plenty of fight-by-fight improvement for Tobias, especially relative to the already in-his-prime Fernando. At 23, he's also still very durable, and absorbing that many shots from Nurgozhay without being dropped has aged well, after Nurgozhay picked up a first-round knockout win last week.
Tobias vs. Fernando Pick, Prediction
This is a classic example of a fight where I don't really expect the underdog to win, but if he does, I'm pretty sure I know how it will happen.
Tobias needs to be far more aggressive on the ground than he was against Nurgozhay to have a chance here, as Fernando is so far ahead of him striking that control time is unlikely to be enough to swing rounds his way, if he's even able to survive on the feet.
For that reason, his most straightforward path to a victory is a submission, and that prop is priced as long as +1000 at Hard Rock Bet. I'd make Tobias' +240 moneyline a slight value as well, but those two numbers should be considerably closer together than they currently are. I'm taking a slight sprinkle on the submission prop at big odds, and I'd gladly take it down to the widely available +800 number
Billy's Picks: Rafael Tobias by Submission +800 (Hard Rock Bet)
