Renier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze Odds
| de Ridder Odds | -380 |
| Dolidze Odds | +300 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-140/+110) |
| Location | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Sacramento odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Sacramento with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Renier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze prediction for UFC Sacramento on Saturday, August 22, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
UFC Sacramento's main card features a light heavyweight showdown between two former middleweights, Renier de Ridder and Roman Dolidze.
De Ridder, who found himself on quite the run for a second there at middleweight, is moving back up to 205 pounds after the serious weight cuts and ultra-busy fight schedule finally caught up with him.The Dutchman has fought as high as heavyweight, so hopefully he's found some proper middle ground here. Dolidze, on the other hand, has also competed up at heavyweight and is technically undefeated north of 185 pounds.
Here's my de Ridder vs. Dolidze pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| de Ridder | Dolidze | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-4 | 15-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:41 | 12:58 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 76" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 07/07/1990 | 07/15/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.47 | 3.19 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.36 | 3.71 |
| SS Defense | 46% | 48% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.56 | 1.16 |
| TD Acc | 29% | 43% |
| TD Def | 40% | 32% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.7 |
From a stylistic perspective, this fight pits together two strong grapplers who have elected to develop different parts of their game.
Although de Ridder's striking was largely a means to an end on his come-up, the Dutchman has proven that he has some deceptively effective tools on the feet. Utilizing his length to cover distance, de Ridder offers a plethora of knees and other awkward southpaw strikes to fuel his pressure-fighting sensibilities.
de Ridder's head is definitely there to be hit, but the 35-year-old understands that turbulence is a necessary evil to achieve his win conditions. And once "RDR" is in closed quarters, the former ONE Championship title holder gets right to work with everything from tricky judo throws to more traditional takedowns along the fence. de Ridder's large frame, coupled with his submission skills, makes him a nightmare to deal with on the floor. That said, Dolidze is no slouch in the phases where de Ridder is strong.
A Georgian wildman who is as unpredictable as it gets, Dolidze, with all due respect, is like a process-less idiot-savant who can put together devastating offense in unsuspecting scenarios.
Comfortable striking from either stance, Dolidze offers some solid punches from orthodox and dangerous kicks from southpaw.
When inside the clinch, Dolidze is as likely to drop for a leg lock as he is to deliver an orbital-breaking knee. And when he's on the floor, "The Caucasian" is quick to look for advances from topside and has an incredibly active and crafty guard from bottom.
de Ridder vs. Dolidze Pick, Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public favor the Dutch fighter, listing de Ridder -400 and Dolidze +300 as of this writing.
Despite de Ridder being a fighter that should always come with some pause when placed as a heavy favorite, I can't say that I don't understand the sentiment behind the line.
de Ridder's head may look as hittable as an unattended tetherball at recess, but "The Dutch Knight," when he's not suffering from in-octagon health issues due to repeated drastic weight cuts to middleweight, is the fighter who puts out more consistent offensive output in an effort to both win rounds and finish his foes.
Even though Dolidze may be the more dangerous party from a power perspective, the Georgian's lack of process and defense means the initiative and numbers will likely tilt in favor of de Ridder.
A finish on either side is more than possible on paper, but I believe that these two go the distance more often than not. On-paper stats and this fight taking place at 205 pounds aside, this is a classic middleweight slop fight between two classic middleweights who are strong in the same phases.
Both men are untrustworthy for different reasons, so I'll be skipping angles on either side and will instead target this fight's over (which I feel is good all the way up to -150).
Dan's Picks: Over 2.5 Rounds -136 (Caesars)
