Read our UFC Sacramento predictions for this live event on Saturday from the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. As is the new normal, the prelims kick off at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with the main card at 8:00 p.m.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Sacramento Moneyline Projections
UFC Sacramento Prop Projections
Wesley Schultz vs. Jackson McVey
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:45 p.m. ET
Jackson McVey and Wes Schultz were both gifted extremely favorable matchups by the UFC in their last outings. Schultz took on a 35-year-old debuting UFC fighter named Ben Johnson who hadn't fought in over two years, while McVey added one more loss to the four-fight winless streak of Sedriques Dumas. With both Schultz and McVey winning last time out, I don't think either is in danger of being cut immediately after this fight, but this matchup feels like a litmus test for which fighter can stick in the promotion long term.
What makes it compelling is that both fighters have a fairly clear path to a victory, not so much because of their own strengths, but because of the other's weaknesses. Schultz has been knocked out in both of his UFC/DWCS losses and is heavily dependent on his grappling, while McVey has been tapped out by every fighter who has managed to take him down in the UFC.
With that binary nature, I'm automatically inclined to take a shot at the underdog, in this case Schultz. The case is a bit stronger than "coin flip fight where both fighters have a path," though. Schultz's knockout losses came to Damian Pinas and Mansur Abdul-Malik, and while the latter has failed to live up to the hype, both are at the very least elite athletes, something that McVey can't say.
McVey's losses are a bit more concerning, given that he was tapped out by Zach Reese and Brunno Ferreira, who went a combined 4-4 on takedown attempts. With Schultz being a former collegiate wrestler, I'd be somewhat surprised if he wasn't able to get this to the mat as well.
This is also technically a rematch, with "Party Time" submitting McVey in just 41 seconds in an amateur fight back in 2020. While that was extremely early in both fighters' careers, it's something of a "proof of concept" of how I expect this fight to go.
I'm splitting my exposure between 0.8 units on Schultz's moneyline, which has a best price of +154 at FanDuel, and 0.2 units on his submission prop at +310, also via FanDuel.
Pick: Schultz +154 | Schultz sub +310
Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
After a pair of split decision wins on the Contender Series and in her UFC debut, Brazilian Jeisla Chaves will hope to extend her professional record to 8-0 against 6-2 American Carli Judice; both fighters have a UFC win over a common opponent in Yuneisy Duben.
Judice is the more technical and voluminous striker, landing more than 10 significant strikes per minute at distance while mixing up her targets. At the same time, Chaves is more grappling-reliant, shooting more than four takedowns per minute at distance in her brief UFC sample.
I project an edge on Judice to win by decision — setting that prop at -135, compared to listed odds closer to +130 — but I also show an actionable angle on a pair of Chaves' props.
I project Chaves to land around 1.5 takedowns and would bet her to land Over 0.5 takedowns at -200; additionally, I project her for just 45 significant strikes, and I would bet her to land Under 59.5 significant strikes, down to 48.5.
Judice may have chances to finish this matchup in the back half of the fight, and the prop angles give us some protection against a finish. However, there's still a strong chance to cash all three tickets if the fight goes the full 15 minutes, and if it does last to decision, I expect her to double-up Chaves on volume.
Pick: Carli Judice wins by Decision +130 (FanDuel) | Jeisla Chaves Over 0.5 Takedowns -150 (Caesars) | Jeisla Chaves Under 59.5 Significant Strikes -115 (DraftKings)
