Jean Silva vs. Jose Delgado Odds
| Silva Odds | -425 |
| Delgado Odds | +330 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-220/+170) |
| Location | Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona |
| Bout Time | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Noche odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Noche with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Jean Silva vs. Jose Delgado prediction for UFC Noche on Saturday, September 12, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
UFC Noche is yet another high-profile UFC card with an impromptu main event. Jean Silva was originally booked to face elusive former interim champion Yair Rodriguez, who withdrew due to injury from what would've been his first fight in almost 18 months.
Fortunately, the replacement fight might be just as good, with up-and-coming Jose Delgado stepping in. Delgado is both an Arizona native and of Mexican descent, making him perfect for this year's Noche event.
Here's my Silva vs. Delgado pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Silva | Delgado | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-3 | 12-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:22 | 9:08 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 12/13/1996 | 4/21/1998 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.82 | 6.07 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.50 | 4.18 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.20 | 1.37 |
| TD Acc | 60% | 38% |
| TD Def | 78% | 63% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.0 |
Jean Silva started his UFC career 5-0 with five finishes, before falling to Diego Lopes in a #1 contender fight at last year's Noche event. Even in defeat, Silva had his moments, leading to that fight winning "Fight of the Night" honors despite it lasting less than ten minutes.
Silva bounced back well in January to win a unanimous decision over Arnold Allen, a perennial tough out. The fight was more competitive than most people seem to remember, but the lasting image for most fans is Silva riding Allen like a surfboard just before the final bell (15:30 mark):
Silva took over down the stretch in that fight, but it was noteworthy that he decided to grapple proactively for the first time in his UFC career due to a smart gameplan from Allen. Silva has landed six takedowns on ten attempts in his eight UFC/DWCS fights — with four takedowns and six attempts coming against Allen.
Allen used his length and southpaw stance to largely stay out of Silva's dangerous range, and picked him apart with straight punches and leg kicks for long stretches of this fight. Silva has an extremely wide stance which artificially shortens and makes him vulnerable to leg kicks, and the slightly taller Allen took advantage of both of those opportunities. The upside for Silva is that his wide base allows him to generate tons of power — which ultimately won him the fight against Allen, as Silva had a few big moments when Allen rushed in too enthusiastically.
I mention all of this because that game plan should also be available for Delgado. He has a solid boxing foundation, has attacked his opponents' legs aggressively in certain matchups, and crucially had a five-inch reach edge over Silva. Whether he has the skills, and the self-restraint, to stay out of trouble is an entirely different question, but I can at least envision what a Delgado win would look like. That's something at more than three-to-one odds.
I don't expect Silva to go back to his offensive grappling much here, but even if he does, it is unlikely to be a big factor in the outcome. Delgado has been taken down seven times in the UFC but given up less than six minutes of control time, most of that to grappling prodigy Austin Bashi. Silva has some slick submissions in his bag but not a great top game, so any takedowns he lands are likely to be short-lived.
Which means this fight should mostly be determined by who gets the better of the striking matchup. Given the success Allen had on the feet, I believe Delgado will win more minutes, but Silva is likely to have the bigger moments. Delgado was dropped by undersized featherweight Nathaniel Wood in his only UFC loss, and Silva brings way more power than Wood. Silva could steal rounds with knockdowns and/or by rocking Delgado, plus the market gives him -175 odds of picking up a knockout.
Silva vs. Delgado Pick, Prediction
While I have some concern about Delgado's chin, I expect the team at MMA Lab to have him well prepared to avoid a firefight in the pocket with Silva. Delgado is generally good at avoiding 50/50 exchanges (note his nearly +2.00 SS differential) while Silva is happy to "take one to give one."
My bigger concern for Delgado is his cardio. This is his first five-round fight, and the style needed to beat Silva is very taxing. Even in a three-round fight, Arnold Allen wore himself down trying to maintain his distance from Silva, while the Brazilian's relatively patient style — at least between short bursts of extreme aggression — holds up well over extended fights. Delgado taking this on less than a full camp only adds to that dynamic, though this isn't quite "short notice."
I have a few different bets here that I'm playing in an effort to cover all of my angles. The first, my biggest position, is the fight to go over 2.5 rounds at even money. I'm laying half of a unit there.
Next, I'm putting a quarter unit on Delgado's moneyline. I don't exactly expect him to win, but +330 is too long of odds for a fighter with a clear path. However, the point spread is out since I think a late Silva stoppage is fairly likely.
Which leads to my final bet: Silva to win in Rounds 3 or 4 at +350 (under "Fight Parlays" on DraftKings). The best case scenario is we hit two of these three angles, but any one would break even with the right unit sizing.
Billy's Picks:
- Over 2.5 Rounds +100 (.5u via DraftKings)
- Delgado +340 (.25u via BetMGM)
- Silva in Rounds 3 or 4 +350 (.25u via DraftKings)
