Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele Odds
| Fan Odds | +170 |
| Steele Odds | -205 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-200/+154) |
| Location | RAC Arena, Perth, Western Australia |
| Bout Time | 4:15 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Perth odds as of Thursday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Perth with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele prediction for UFC Perth on Saturday, May 2, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Two of my favorite new entrants into the UFC meet in the opening bout of UFC Perth early Saturday morning. This is technically the UFC debut for "Street Buddha" Dom Mar Fan, whose previous win, while on a UFC event, was officially a Road to UFC bout. His opponent, Kody Steele, is 0-1 in the promotion after dropping his debut to Rongzhu following a knockout win on the Contender Series. Both men are grapplers by nature, but willing to throw down hands when the situation calls for it, which should lead to an exciting fight wherever this bout takes place.
Here's my Fan vs. Steele pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Fan | Steele | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-2 | 7-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 12:04 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/19/2000 | 4/21/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.71 | 4.44 |
| SS Accuracy | 56% | 32% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.49 | 7.17 |
| SS Defense | 44% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.00 | 0.62 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 14% |
| TD Def | 66% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0 |
We have an interesting clash of grappling styles in this matchup. I bet on Dom Mar Fan in his Road to UFC championship bout, but was worried that he'd exclusively grapple and forget to land damage from the top. Conversely, Steele competed as a professional grappler across various disciplines, but has a tendency to become enamored with his own striking, rather than relying on his best ability.
On the Contender Series, Steele failed to land a single takedown before knocking out Chasen Blair. To be fair, that was a somewhat logical approach, given Blair's D-1 wrestling pedigree. My memory of Steele's UFC debut was that he was also unwilling to grapple — but upon watching the fight back, I discovered that wasn't quite right.
Steele took Rongzhu down fairly quickly in the first round, but was immediately reversed and had to scramble back to his feet. Then he wobbled Rongzhu with some big shots, which led to him mostly abandoning takedowns. That proved to be a poor decision ultimately, but an understandable one, since he had more success stirring than grappling in the early part of that fight of the night-winning bout.
It would also be a somewhat reasonable game plan against Fan, given his 44% significant strike defense rate against lesser competition on the Road to UFC tournament. Fan isn't a bad technical striker, with fairly textbook kickboxing, but he's a touch slow for lightweight. Crucially, he lacks meaningful power, so Steele won't have to worry about being rocked the way he was against Rongzhu in his debut.
Steele is a considerably better overall athlete with better power. He has four knockout wins to just one submission in his pro career, though at least one of those knockouts came via ground and pound. Steele likes to close the distance and box and works the body well. That's made possible by his grappling game, as he's not especially worried about giving up takedowns when he plants his feet at close range.
Steele's pressure should also serve him well here against Fan. The rangy Fan had plenty of striking success when sniping from range on the Road to UFC, but looked uncomfortable when pushed backwards, especially along the fence. Like Steele, Fan typically solves that dilemma via his grappling, but I'm not sure that will be an option for him here.
Both of Fan's career losses are submissions to Quillan Salkilld, who I'd consider a lesser pure grappler than Steele. While Fan has no doubt improved since then, mixing it up with Steele on the mat probably isn't an ideal game plan. Particularly if he's taking bad shots due to pressure, rather than setting up his own offensive takedowns while on the front foot. There's a big difference between initiating grappling on your terms compared to shooting under duress.
I expect the latter situation to occur more often against an aggressive opponent like Steele, who should be on the gas as long as this one stays standing.
Fan vs. Steele Pick, Prediction
With Steele's moneyline moving back inside of -200, I'm torn between laying the juice on the favorite straight up and betting on him to win inside the distance. Steele has finished his last four victories, and his previous decisions came when he was still focused on grappling competition rather than fighting full time.
While Fan has never been knocked out, his striking defense rate is well below average, and he was showing signs of damage against a much lesser fighter in his last appearance. Plus, the submission (or club-and-sub) could be there for Steele, given his background.
Rather than pick, I'm splitting my exposure between Steele's moneyline (-198 at DraftKings) for roughly one unit to win 0.5 units, plus another half-unit on Steele to win in the first two rounds (+250 at FanDuel). That way, a finish in the first ten minutes nets well over a unit, while still risking less than taking Steele's moneyline to win one unit.
Billy's Picks: Kody Steele -198 DraftKings (1u) | Steele in Rounds 1 or 2 +250 FanDuel (0.5u)
