Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates, Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Kansas City

Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates Odds, Prediction

Check out my Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates predictions, picks and odds for UFC Kansas City on Saturday, April 26th.

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri, for a 14-fight card, featuring an important matchup in the welterweight division between No. 7 contender Ian Machado Garry and No. 13-ranked Carlos Prates.

Prates, a member of Team Fighting Nerds, is 4-0 under the promotional banner, with four knockout wins in the first two rounds of those fights. Along with his longtime teammates Caio Borralho, Jean Silva, and Mauricio Ruffy, the primary members of Team Fighting Nerds are a combined 24-0 in the UFC.

Still, Saturday could mark his first championship round test; Prates finished Neal Magny in the first round of their main event encounter last November, but he's previously struggled with cardio in extended contests.

Conversely, Garry will enter his third-career five-round fight following a competitive decision loss against Shavkat Rakhmonov in a title eliminator in December, marking the first loss of his career. Garry is 8-1 in the UFC, has faced a higher caliber of competition relative to Prates, and will hope to re-ascend towards title contention with a win over a rising prospect on Saturday.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on these welterweights, who should make their cage walk at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET (9:45 p.m. PT) on ESPN2.

Here's my Garry vs. Prates prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Garry is the taller man (2") with longer legs, who prefers to kick opponents from range and utilize the entire breadth of the octagon.

Still, Prates has a four-inch reach advantage and is both the more dynamic striker and the more powerful athlete in this matchup between two fighters who don't defend strikes particularly well, with both near 50% effectiveness.

After showing a well-rounded finishing skillset in Cage Warriors, Garry has become a point-fighter at the UFC level (decisions in six of nine appearances) by limiting pocket exchanges; he prefers to teep and calf-kick opponents from a distance before retreating. He also gets in and clinches opponents against the fence or attempts to consolidate a takedown (averages 0.7 attempts per five minutes at distances).

Prates comes from a Muay Thai background, and grappling is the weaker part of his skillset; he ceded more than a minute of control time in his first two UFC fights (against Mitch Ramirez on Contender Series and Trevin Giles in his debut) but showed decent urgency scrambling to return to his feet.

Given his camp and training partners, including Caio Borralho, Prates has likely made significant improvements to his defensive wrestling and grappling, even over the past year since the Giles fight.

Still, cardio is a significant concern for the Brazilian, a noted smoker who is trying to break the habit to "get fitter and healthier."

Prates may hurt Garry early; Ian has been rocked in the past, particularly by Song Kenan, but Garry has shown good recoverability after getting wobbled. And he has proven his ability to fight at a sustained pace, without tiring even slightly, for 25 minutes. Garry was the fresher man at the end of his fight with Shavkat Rakhmonov.

Moreover, Garry has spent the past three years training at Chute Boxe in Brazil with Charles Olveira and his team, and I'd expect offensive grappling to be a significant part of his game plan on Saturday.

Even if Garry doesn't land takedowns or threaten submissions, holding Prates up against the fence and draining his energy could pay significant dividends late in a more prolonged fight against an opponent with lesser stamina.

And almost regardless of how the fight plays out, Garry is likely a solid live bet anytime after round 2, considering the likely cardio discrepancy between these fighters across 25 minutes.

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Machado Garry vs. Prates Prediction

I projected Ian Machado Garry as a near 54% favorite (-117 implied odds) in this matchup, and I don't show actionable value on either side of the moneyline at current odds.

However, Prates' moneyline is beginning to come into range, as high as +122 (45% implied) as of writing; I'd want at least +125 before backing the underdog pre-fight. And to reiterate, consider betting Garry live anytime after round 2; hopefully, that timing enables you to grab plus money on both sides of the contest.

I project present value on the Over 3.5 Rounds (to -110) or the fight to go to decision (projected +132, listed +163) to +145. Three-round UFC Welterweight fights go to decision at roughly a 45% clip (+122 implied), and five-rounders (which have a selection bias for more durable fighters) are closer to 56% (-127 implied).

Prates has more finishing upside of the pair, and if the fight goes longer, it certainly helps Garry; I show value on the favorite to win by decision (projected +217, listed +250). However, I'll likely save that prop for round-robin wagers if I play it at all.

Prates could ultimately have better cardio and defensive grappling than we anticipate, and judges might defer to his power and striking ability over Garry's volume-kicking game in a close and competitive decision.

Sean's Pick: Over 3.5 Rounds (+100 at FanDuel) | Carlos Prates (+135 at BetMGM) | Ian Machado Garry Live after Round 2