Jimmy Crute vs. Ivan Erslan Odds
| Crute Odds | -185 |
| Erslan Odds | +154 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-135/+105) |
| Location | RAC Arena, Perth, Western Australia |
| Bout Time | 12:15 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Perth odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Perth with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Jimmy Crute vs. Ivan Erslan prediction for Noche UFC on Saturday, September 13, with my betting preview and breakdown.
UFC Perth features more of a "penultimate fight" than a true co-main event, with Jimmy Crute vs. Ivan Erslan shuffled into the second-to-last spot during fight week. This one is a pretty blatant attempt to revive the career of Crute, as Erslan is 0-2 in the UFC — but only a +154 underdog. Can the popular Australian get back on track on home soil, or will Erslan pull off his first UFC win?
Here's my Crute vs. Erslan pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Crute | Erslan | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-4-2 | 14-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:33 | 15:00 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/04/1996 | 11/15/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.17 | 2.50 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.68 | 5.17 |
| SS Defense | 42% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.2 | 0.5 |
| TD Acc | 52% | 20% |
| TD Def | 58% | 64% |
| Submission Avg | 1.9 | 0 |
In 11 UFC fights, Jimmy Crute has seen the judges' scorecards just twice. Improbably, both of those ended in draws, with Crute picking up the requisite 10-8 rounds that saved him from an outright defeat — though one of the two was due to a fence grab by his opponent.
In some ways, that sums up Crute's career. His highs are very high, with a submission win over elite grappler Paul Craig in his UFC debut. Unfortunately, his lows, and even his median performances, are also very low.
His biggest issue is clearly his striking defense. The 42% defensive rate is well below UFC average, and even in fights that he's won or tied he's been out-struck by opponents like Marcin Prachnio and Alonzo Menifield, neither of whom is known for their striking.
Crute is an excellent grappler/wrestler, though. Averaging more than four takedowns per fight and a success rate over 50% is impressive, and he relentlessly hunts submissions. That partially explains the high variance in his career, since he often tires himself out and/or gives up a better position while hunting those submissions. That's not always a bad thing when he's fresh early in fights, as the BJJ black belt is adept at reversing position and getting back on top or to his feet. It becomes a problem later, when he lacks the energy to work his way out from bottom position.
Crute also relies fairly heavily on his strength and athleticism, both to finish submissions and scramble out of bad positions. That's how he was able to submit Craig with a kimura from half guard, while getting submitted himself by a less technical but more physical grappler in Menifield.
The good news for Crute is that he's the much better athlete in this matchup. Erslan has big power but not much else, and his typical game plan on the feet involves waiting in the center of the cage and hoping to land big right hands or left hooks. Erslan's win condition has been exclusively first-round knockouts since 2019, encompassing a period in which he went 8-5 in the Polish KSW promotion.
That makes for an interesting dynamic against the hittable Crute. While Crute has taken plenty of damage and suffered a few knockdowns, his only true knockout loss came against Jamahal Hill in 2021, with the other one on his record the result of a leg injury. All in all, he's fairly durable, though that can change in an instant if too much damage is taken.
Similarly to Crute, when that power is too much for his opposition, he can find success. However, he lacks much of a Plan B when he can't immediately starch his opponent. To his credit, his striking defense is solid, with his head movement standing out, but that's easier to do when you're throwing as few strikes as Erslan does. You're unlikely to get hit with counters when you barely throw, and Erslan's 2.50 strikes landed per minute mark is extremely low.
More importantly for this matchup, Erslan's grappling defense is a massive flaw. By standing in the center of the cage and not throwing much back, he allows opponents to shoot nearly at will. Despite holding a 64% takedown defense rate, he's still been taken down six times in two UFC fights.
He's held his own on the mat once put there so far in his UFC career, but has yet to face anyone with Crute's grappling skills. Fellow UFC Perth combatant Navajo Stirling took Erslan down three times — and Stirling is a former professional kick boxer who landed 0 takedowns in his two other UFC/DWCS fights.
That gives Crute a fairly obvious path to victory here, presuming he's willing to follow it.
Crute vs. Erslan Pick, Prediction
While Erslan has a pretty solid puncher's chance here, the overall skill, athleticism, and youth are all on the side of Crute. On top of that, his biggest strength lines up pretty nicely with the grappling weakness of Erslan.
While Erslan has never been finished in the UFC, he was dropped by Stirling in his last fight and has been both submitted and knocked out on the regional scene.
While I'm worried that Crute turns his grappling into ground and pound, the likelier outcome is that he continues to hunt submissions. With most books making Crute's knockout and submission props the same price, that makes the submission line too good to pass up.
The best available is at FanDuel, where his sub prop is +280, and I'm playing it for half of a unit.
Billy's Pick: Crute by Submission +280 (FanDuel)
