Mando Nallo vs. Jai Herbert Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC Winnipeg (Saturday, April 18)

Mando Nallo vs. Jai Herbert Odds

Check out the Mando Nallo vs. Jai Herbert prediction for UFC Winnipeg on Saturday, April 18, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

UFC Winnipeg's main card features a lightweight bout between Canada's Mandel Nallo and England's Jai Herbert. Herbert, who is the more experienced fighter in the octagon, currently stands at 3-5-1 under the UFC banner. Whereas Nallo, despite being 36 years of age, will be making his promotional debut after a successful showing on Dana White's Contender Series opposite Samuel Silva last year. Hardcores and insiders alike have been aware of Nallo for some time, which is probably why the matchmakers are giving the Canadian such a solid test out of the gate.

Here's my Nallo vs. Herbert pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

This matchup pits two strikers who like to stay fast and loose on the feet.

Herbert, who carries an incredibly clean and fundamental offensive striking game, does a decent job of fighting to his long frame. From a steady dose of jabs to leg kicks that come in conjunction with combinations, Herbert can be a clean and consistent scorer when he wants to be. And when he's feeling in stride, Herbet does a good job of changing levels and going to the body.

Herbert is also good about mixing in the occasional takedown attempt, but those typically tend to lead to stalemates inside the clinch. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Herbert continue to explore alternate avenues against someone like Nallo.

Akin to eccentric strikers of the past like Anderson Silva, Nallo really puts the 'artist' in the term, "knockout artist."

Working behind an excellent jab that is the hallmark of Tristar Gym, Nallo is good at stinging his opponents and setting up offense off of his lead hand. And though Nallo was on the wrong end of a peroneal nerve issue from a Kyllis Mota kick many years ago, Nallo's leg and calf kicks have proven to be lethal in the latter half of his career.

In fact, Nallo is an incredibly dynamic and dangerous kicker, in general. Whether he's sneaking front kicks up the centerline or letting loose to the head, Nallo knows how to utilize his range with impunity. And when fighters come in hot, the 36-year-old Canadian displays excellent eyes in exchanges and can drop fight-changing counters at the drop of a dime.

Nallo has traditionally struggled against aggressive ground fighters, but has also made measured improvements in his grappling game as well – particularly when it comes to back entries and rear-naked choke finishes.

Nallo vs. Herbert Pick, Prediction

The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the Canadian fighter, listing Nallo -180 and Herbert +140 as of this writing.

Although it's not very difficult to make a "dog or pass" argument based on Herbert's superior experience and Nallo's late-stage debut, this fight is much trickier than meets the eye.

Aside from the fact that Herbert will be 38 years old himself next month, Nallo's notoriously sparse career resume, for as frustrating as it was for his fans, has arguably saved "Mango" from the insane mileage that lightweights typically accrue by their mid-to-late 30s.

Moreover, Nallo presents traditional problems for Herbert from both a stature and stylistic perspective.

Not only has Herbert traditionally struggled with fighters who can offer him parity in the height and reach department, but the English fighter has also had a hard time with combatants who can competently leg kick and counter with power.

Add in the fact that Herbert has shown suspect durability and staying power in the past, and I can't help but back a knockout artist like Nallo in this spot.

I really like the Under 2.5 rounds total if you can grab it under -155, but with those prices being both chalky and fleeting, I'll instead go another way for my official play.

I recommend looking at SGP's with the Under 2.5 total tied in with Nallo's money line if you're looking to turn chalk into big plus money, but as a safer option I'll fire on Nallo's inside the distance prop for roughly a dime less.

If you like Herbert or want to go contrarian, then I suggest looking at angles that involve the over. In fact, I'll probably be throwing this fight's split decision prop into a round robin as a potential hedge for both the value and the fact that if this fight does go over – it's likely because the fighters got themselves into a greasy, low-volume staring contest.

Dan's Picks: Mandel Nallo by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission +120 (Hard Rock Bet)   

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