Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato Odds, Prediction
| Craig Odds | +400 |
| Bellato Odds | -535 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 Rounds (+105/-135) |
| Location | UFC Aprex | Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 8:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 106 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Vegas 106 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato predictions, picks and odds for UFC Vegas 106 on Saturday, May 16.
The UFC is trying to squeeze a bit more juice out of Paul Craig before he hangs it up, giving yet another promising prospect the chance to build a name off the formerly ranked light heavyweight. Craig's experiment at middleweight has him on a three-fight losing streak, now he returns to his former division to take on Rodolfo Bellato, a 29-year-old Brazilian with a 12-2-1 professional record.
Here's my Craig vs. Bellato prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Bellato | Craig | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-2-1 | 17-9-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:40 | 8:20 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/5/1996 | 11/27/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.28 | 2.52 |
| SS Accuracy | 62% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.31 | 3.03 |
| SS Defense | 46% | 43% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.06 | 1.52 |
| TD Acc | 30% | 20% |
| TD Def | 100% | 37% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 1.4 |
At his peak, Paul Craig was probably a fight away from a UFC title shot. The Scottish grappling ace won four straight fights by stoppage, beating two former or future champions in Jamahal Hill and Mauricio Rua, and was ranked inside the top five.
Then his opponents realized they didn't have to engage him on the ground. Craig is one of the best submission artists in the UF, but struggles to land takedowns. His 20% success rate is extremely low, and most of his fights ended up on the ground due to Paul pulling guard.
Eventually, the rest of the division figured out that top position on Craig wasn't worth the risk, and to force him to fight on his feet. That's left Craig with two options: Either wing wild shots and hope one connects, or continue to shoot bad double legs and turn them into guard pulls.
The former strategy at least leads to exciting fights, usually ending with Craig unconscious. The latter has led to some stinkers.
Craig has now been used as a stepping stone for ascending names like Caio Borralho, Brendan Allen, and most recently Bo Nickal — though the lackluster kickboxing match they put on certainly didn't ingratiate Bo to any new fans.
Rodolfo Bellato seems fairly incapable of a boring kickboxing match. The BJJ brown belt has some high-level grappling accomplishments, but most of his professional MMA career has been decided by strikes.
Both his pro losses came against current UFC fighter Vitor Petrino, who knocked out Bellato in a Brazilian regional fight and on the Contender Series. Since that DWCS loss, Bellato has two knockout wins and a draw in UFC-affiliated action, including his second stint on the Contender Series.
As his numbers indicate, Bellato is all gas no brakes on the feet. He both lands and absorbs more than six significant strikes per minute, both well over the divisional average. He's shown a remarkable ability to recover from damage, coming back from near knockouts against Ihor Poteria and Jimmy Crute. He won the former fight with a knockout of his own while winning the second and third rounds against Crute.
On the one hand, that durability is commendable. On the other, taking that much damage isn't a great long-term plan, and the refs in both fights would've been justified in halting the action.
On the ground, his jiu-jitsu skill is evident, but also not especially blended into MMA grappling. Against Crute, he made some risky decisions to isolate his arms in an attempt to find sweeps or escapes, which led to taking a ton of damage.
That's extremely risky against Craig, who not only has elite grappling but has adapted it well to MMA. Of course, that might not matter, as it's hard to see Craig landing a takedown.
Bellato should be able to cover his heavy price tag against Craig with the right game plan here, though he does tend to initiate grappling exchanges and that's a hard habit to break.
Craig vs. Bellato Prediction
Given the wide moneyline price here, I went shopping in the prop market to look for another way to play this fight. The obvious choice is Bellato by knockout, but with a price ranging from -160 to -185 it's hard to see much value.
Then I noticed Craig's knockout price at FanDuel. They have Craig to win by TKO/KO at an insane +2500.
Obviously, it's not the likeliest outcome, given Craig's relatively poor striking. However, with Bellato's poor defense and Craig's penchant for winging wild shots, crazier things have happened. This is a man whose been dropped in three of his four UFC/DWCS fights, and as recently as February.
Plus, with Bellato's penchant for tying off his hands for sweeps and escapes, a TKO finish is probably more likely than a submission if this fight makes it to the canvas. I'd bet this prop down to +1500, but I'm putting just one-tenth of a unit on it.
Billy's Pick: Paul Craig via TKO/KO +2500 (FanDuel)
