Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes Odds, Prediction
| Fiziev Odds | +105 |
| Bahamondes Odds | -125 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-166/-220) |
| Location | Baku Crystal Hall | Baku, Azerbaijan |
| Bout Time | 5:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Baku odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Baku with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes predictions, picks and odds for UFC Baku on Saturday, June 21.
Ignacio Bahamondes looks to enter the lightweight rankings on Saturday with a win over No. 11-ranked contender Rafael Fiziev.
Bahamondes enters on a three-fight winning streak, having won seven of his nine UFC bouts (including a contract-earning performance on Contender Series), with finishes in six of those seven victories.
Fiziev enters on a three-fight losing streak–including a pair of decision losses to Justin Gaethje–with a 6-4 promotional record.
He has not won a bout since July 2022, when he finished Rafael dos Anjos in the fifth round of his lone main event appearance, partly due to a lengthy layoff after injuring his knee against Mateusz Gamrot in September 2023. While Fiziev took the Gaethje rematch in March on short notice, he's now had more time to recover from the injury in the interim.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Baku Co-Main Event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on these lightweights. They should make their cage walk at approximately 5:15 p.m. ET (2:15 p.m. PT) on ABC.
Here's my Fiziev vs. Bahamondes prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Fiziev | Bahamondes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-4 | 17-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:01 | 9:55 |
| Height | 5'8" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 75" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/5/1993 | 8/27/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.85 | 7.09 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.95 | 4.36 |
| SS Defense | 48% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.5 | 0 |
| TD Acc | 57% | 0% |
| TD Def | 90% | 85% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0.5 |
Ignacio Bahamondes is a very large lightweight and the much bigger man in this matchup. He is 7" taller, with a 4" reach advantage against Rafael Fiziev.
Bahamondes also holds the more efficient striking stats: out-landing opponents by 2.7 strikes per minute at distance (compared to a neutral +0.0 mark for Fiziev) and fighting at a higher pace (lands 7.6 strikes per minute to 5.1 for Fiziev) than his opponent desires.
Still, Fiziev is a fast starter, and this is the ultimate buy low spot on his moneyline, after closing as a favorite in both Gaethje fights (-225 in the first fight, -165 in the rematch), and sitting at chalk against both Gamrot (-130) and RDA (-200 in a five rounder). He hasn't been an underdog since he defeated Marc Diakiese in November 2021.
Fiziev has a dynamic kicking game from range and can sit down on his punches inside the pocket, where he can likely hurt Bahamondes, who has tall man defensive tendencies and often fails to move his head.
Fiziev is a fast starter, winning the first half of the first Gaethje fight and round 1 of their short-notice rematch. Still, he does tend to fade in the second half of his fights, leaving an opening for Bahamondes to rally down the stretch if Fiziev doesn't put him away early.
That said, Fiziev has had more time to recover since his knee injury, is on a whole camp, and is competing in his region of the world (for body clock purposes) rather than fighting in Las Vegas.
The front teep kick from Bahamondes will be a significant weapon. It will maintain distance and prevent Fiziev from entering the pocket or the clinch, where Fiziev should find success in this matchup against a taller and longer opponent.
Bahamondes has offensive grappling upside in this matchup, but he doesn't proactively shoot takedowns (0.5 per 5 minutes at distance; 0.3 for Fiziev), and Fiziev (90% takedown defense; denied 45 of 50 attempts) has incredibly fast hips to deny his entries.
I'd rather bet Fiziev pre-fight and target Bahamondes live, after Round 1 or midway through Round 2. Bahamondes should offer more output in the second half of the match, particularly as a slowing Fiziev struggles to close the distance and get inside Ignacio's reach. Still, I like Fiziev's chances to close the show early.
Fiziev vs. Bahamondes Prediction
I projected Rafael Fiziev as a slight 51.4% favorite (-106 implied odds) in this matchup, and I would bet his pre-fight moneyline at even money (+100) or better.
Moreover, I projected Fiziev's KO prop at +332 (+410 listed) compared to listed odds as high as +410 at BetRivers; bet that prop down to +350.
Lastly, I'd consider sprinkling Fiziev to win by Round 1 KO/TKO (+1000), given the potential mis-pricing of the matchup in general, and the cardio dynamic between these fighters; if Fiziev finishes, he likely does so in the first 7.5 minutes of the matchup.
However, you can look to hedge live on Bahamondes after Round 1 or midway through Round 2. If the fight extends to a third round, I favor his gas tank and output.
Sean's Pick: Rafael Fiziev (+110 at Caesars) | Fiziev wins by KO/TKO (+410 at BetRivers) | Ignacio Bahamondes Live after Round 1
