We've got a pair of title fights at UFC 330, with both Islam Makhachev and Mackenzie Dern defending their titles for the first time. Both champions are moderate favorites to hold court, but is there an upset (or two) in the cards?
The 12-fight card goes down at the Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia on Saturday, with the standard 5:00 p.m. prelims and 9:00 p.m. main card.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Serbia odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 330 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Islam Makhachev (-355) vs. Ian Garry (+280)
Islam Makhachev moved up to welterweight after a dominant run at 155lbs, claiming the title from short-lived champion Jack Della Maddalena in a clear but relatively lackluster performance. That win hasn't aged particularly well given that Maddalena was immediately knocked out in his return fight, while Makhachev did little other than control JDM on the ground.
Of course, that game plan is extremely successful if not the most exciting, and the question will be whether or not he's able to repeat it against Ian "The Future" Machado Garry.
Garry is best known in the UFC as a striker, but came up as a grappler, with a Judo background. He's undefeated outside of a competitive five-round decision loss to Shavkhat Rakhmonov, where he defended eight of ten takedown attempts but was controlled for extended periods when the fight did hit the mat. Still just 28, Garry will need to have made some improvement in that realm to have a shot against Makhachev.
Still just 28, there's a solid case that Garry has been improving. Plus, an underrated factor working in his favor is that the bulk of Makhachev's takedowns come from close range. With Garry's Judo background, four-inch reach edge, and the larger PPV cage, he's uniquely positioned to defend or deter those takedowns.
Makhachev is clearly the rightful favorite, but I believe Garry is pretty dramatically undervalued at +280. However, given the Irishman's deeply unpopular status with the fan base, we'll probably see a better line later in the week.
Verdict: Ian Garry Undervalued (But Wait)
Mackenzie Dern (-258) vs. Gillian Robertson (+210)
After long-reigning champion Zhang Weili vacated the 115lbs belt in an attempt to win the 125lbs title, Mackenzie Dern took on Virna Jandiroba for the vacant title. Dern won a clear, but not especially dominant, decision over the 37-year-old Jandiroba, with the thought being that she'd welcome Zhang back to the 115lbs division.
Strangely, Zhang hasn't returned, so instead Dern puts the title on the line against Gillian Robertson, whose five-fight winning streak is two fights longer than Dern's.
Robertson is about two years younger than Dern, and is also coming off a win over Amanda Lemos — the last woman to beat Dern back in 2024. The champion has certainly improved since then — and Lemos has continued to age and decline — but it's still worth noting the "MMA Math" here.
The bigger issue I have with Dern being favored so heavily is her inability to finish or dominate fights. She has one finish in her last nine fights, a 5-4 record in that period, and just one decision in which she didn't at least drop a round. Dern's best shot at a finish is grappling, but Robertson is a fellow BJJ black belt and excellent grappler in her own right.
I'm not sure if the sharper play here is Robertson's moneyline or her point spread when those lines become available, and like the main event, the more popular champion will likely get steamed up, so there's no rush to make this bet — but I'll be on the Canadian challenger in some form.
Verdict: Robertson Undervalued
Tresean Gore (-148) vs. Vicente Luque (+124)
Tresean Gore is 3-4 in the UFC, with all three wins improbably coming via guillotine. He's been out struck at a more than two-to-one ratio in the UFC, and has been knocked down four times without landing a single one.
I've certainly lost money betting against Gore to pull a guillotine from nowhere before, but no question about it, I'm ready to get hurt again. Vicente Luque is a BJJ black belt who has been submitted just once in 25 UFC fights, and looked much better in his last appearance — his first since moving up to middleweight.
His moneyline peaked as high as +130 but has been dropping since, unsurprisingly, with a majority of Tapology predictions coming in on the veteran. The best line is +125 at Caesars, but I'd take any plus-money bet on Luque.
Verdict: Luque Undervalued
