The sporting season we've been waiting all summer for is finally upon us. Not the NFL; it's the Contender Series, where 100 or so UFC hopefuls will battle in hopes of earning a UFC contract.
The Contender Series has been one of my most profitable betting ventures over the past three years, with fairly large edges to be found by grinding the tape on lesser-known prospects. While past results don't guarantee future performance, I'm excited to give it another shot over the next 10 weeks.
Check out the latest Dana White's Contender Series Week 1 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, August 11, fight card.
DWCS Season 10 Episode 1 of Contender Series streams tonight on Paramount+ at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
As with all DWCS events, some of the winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract tonight. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC CEO Dana White will be cageside tonight. The UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract with their performances, which also count as official MMA bouts on the fighters' records.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets, and see mine, in the Action App.
Dana White's Contender Series 10 odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 1 with our DraftKings promo code.
Dana White's Contender Series Week 1 Odds & Best Bets
Middleweight: Jon Kunneman (-225) vs. Joseph Kropschot (+185)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
Jon Kunneman and Joseph Kropschot opened with much wider lines than we're seeing now, with money coming in on the underdog. Let's see if we can figure out what the market saw and if there's any value left on the bone.
Kunneman is certainly the A-side here, as a 10-0 prospect primarily training in Colorado with plenty of UFC-level fighters as training partners. He seems to travel to various high-level MMA camps, including Jackson Wink and Tiger Beetle MMA, giving him a solid pedigree as he comes into this experience. He's frequently referred to as a main training partner of UFC lightweight champion Justin Gaethje, though he seems to get rounds with plenty of UFC fighters on a regular basis.
Kunneman is notably a type-1 diabetic, with plenty of media this week focusing on his diagnosis and managing of the disease. That's probably not a relevant factor to his skills or ability, but I'd imagine it makes it harder to cut weight, and he's potentially undersized at middleweight. He is giving up three inches in height and a couple in reach in this matchup, which will likely be a recurring issue across his career.
Of course, Kunneman's penchant to take fights to the ground makes height and reach less relevant. He's picked up nine straight first round wins, with six submissions and at least one via ground and pound. However, outside of his title fight in Anthony Pettis FC, the level of competition has been pretty low. That fight was against an 8-2 opponent, though he was also 40 years old and hadn't won a fight in 11 years when he met Kunneman.
In all of the tape I found on Kunneman, he rushed forward with sloppy — though aggressive — strikes before initiating a clinch and securing a body lock takedown that led to an eventual finish. That's relatively easy to do against opponents you can overwhelm, but perhaps not an ideal strategy against opponents who won't immediately melt at the pressure. Just because a fighter hasn't fought tough competition doesn't mean they can't, but Kunneman's style seems particularly tailored to running through lesser fighters.
Which category Kropschot falls into will be the determining factor on whether he's worth a flier at underdog odds. The 31-year-old is 8-3, with all three losses coming in a row from 2019 to 2021, two of which came against future UFC fighters. Following that span, he took a few years off, earning his black belt and competing in some grappling competitions while improving his overall skills.
Since that stretch, he's gone 4-0 with four finishes, recently winning the LFA title as an underdog against an undefeated opponent.
On the feet, he uses his length well, jabbing and leg kicking at range to keep opponents at bay. However, he's very slow and can get overwhelmed by more athletic opponents who blitz him aggressively. That's not ideal against the much more explosive Kunneman, but Kropschot, to his credit, has usually been able to weather the storm and get back to range or land takedowns of his own.
Kropschot shines when he can get fights to the mat, though, even if he's forced to pull guard (or get knocked down) to accomplish it. In that way, he's like a (very) poor man's Charles Oliveira, presenting opponents with a difficult decision whether or not to follow him down after hurting him. Kropschot can also maintain his plodding pace essentially indefinitely, and I worry about Kunneman's ability to keep up the pressure in the later rounds.
For that reason, this is an ideal live betting opportunity on Kropschot, who will almost certainly face some early adversity and get massive live odds if he survives it. I make his +230 moneyline a slight value, but greatly prefer waiting for a live bet and/or parlaying his moneyline with some combination of time over once that option becomes available.
On the other hand, Kunneman in Round 1 is a solid way to hedge the Kropschot live spot, so we'll see what that line looks like closer to fight time.
Prediction: Kropschot Sub R2/R3
Billy's Bet: Kropschot Live
Featherweight: Ananias Mulumba (-170) vs. Tom Pagliarulo (+142)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
This is the second trip to the Contender series for Ananias Mulumba, who lost an instant classic to Marwan Rahiki on last year's run of the show. Often I'm critical of fighters getting another shot when there's deserving prospects elsewhere, but the quality of the fight/effort from Mulmba as well as how good Rahiki has proven to be in his two UFC fights, make Mulumba more than deserving of a second chance.
They traded knockdowns back and forth until Rahiki got the last laugh with his second, but Mulumba showed plenty of striking ability to go with the grappling he was better known for coming into the fight. I was a bit disappointed in the ground game of Mulumba based on what I'd seen before, as he had Rahiki's back on multiple occasions and failed to land a submission or much meaningful damage.
Of course, that could be a testament to Rahiki's skills more than a knock on Mulumba, but I did note in my previous breakdown that he relies more on athleticism than super technical grappling. There's nothing wrong with that necessarily, but that approach has a ceiling, as does his aggressive, defense optional approach on the feet.
Mulumba did pick up another knockout win against a solid opponent following the Contender Series, where he showed a bit more patience, so perhaps he's learned some valuable lessons following the Rahiki loss. He still took chances on occasion, but they were more in the category of measured risks rather than reckless brawling.
We'll see if he can keep that same composure into the fight with Tom Pagliarulo, a 10-2 pro from Massachusetts who also trains out of Tiger Beetle Martial Arts with Cory Sandhagen and Kunneman. He has a win over UFC veteran Don Shainis and one in the PFL, but has otherwise fought pretty questionable competition, at least in his wins.
He's tall for the division at 6'0, but fights from an awkward, hunched-over stance. He likes to lead with "naked" (not set up by arm strikes) kicks and knees, which makes good use of his range, but seems like it would leave him open for grappling attempts from his opponents. None of his recent opponents attempted to bring him to the ground, which makes that part hard to handicap, though I can sympathize with those fighters who thought the tall, skinny Pagliarulo would be easy to take out with strikes.
The bigger issue with Pagliarulo is that he doesn't seem to be an exceptional athlete, nor preternaturally talented at any specific part of fighting other than perhaps underrated power. He doesn't seem to have any massive weaknesses, but defense isn't enough to win fights at this level.
I could see the longer Pagliarulo clipping Mulumba at some point, but the returning fighter is a better athlete and has shown some toughness in coming back from the first Rahiki knockdown to claim the fight. He also has a grappling edge on paper, which is enough for me to lay some slight juice on him at -158 via FanDuel — though Action Pro subscribers saw my -148 bet on Mulumba yesterday before the line moved.
Prediction: Mulumba via knockout
Billy's Bets: Mulumba -148 (DraftKings)
Flyweight: Bilal Hasan (-3600) vs. Mridul Saikia (+1500)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
I'm not sure what the widest betting line in DWCS history is — though I suspect it involves Bo Nickal — but Bilal "The Indoninja" Hasan might be approaching that record, with some books having him favored at more than -400 against India's Mridul Saikia.
Frankly, I'm not entirely sure why Saikia is being given this opportunity if not to make Hasan look good. Saikia is 8-1 as a pro, with all eight wins coming in his native country. However, his one loss came in the opening round of last year's Road to UFC tournament, where he was knocked out in just 37 seconds by an opponent who lost in the first round of his semifinal fight.
Saikia's highlight reel paints the picture of a reasonably competent grappler, though my understanding is that Indian regional MMA is largely filled with strikers. He also has the regrettable habit of getting taken down in order to find subs off his back, which isn't a great plan against higher level grapplers like he's facing here.
Hasan is pretty clearly being promoted as a potential future star. Of Indonesian heritage, the UFC could certainly expand their market if Hasan catches on, and he certainly seems to have the skills to match. After going 6-0 as an amateur, the 25-year-old is 8-0 as a pro, with each fight coming under the CFFC banner. Four of those have been for the title, all of the title wins have been by finish, and he even flashed solid cardio in earning a Round 4 stoppage in his second title defense.
Training with flyweight GOAT Demetrius Johnson also doesn't hurt, and like Johnson, he has a very well-rounded style. He was somewhat patient at striking range in his title fights, but I expect him to turn up the pace in three-round contests, while showing excellent striking defense and effectively mixing in grappling.
With odds this long, most of the likely round and method of victory props will also be heavily juiced. However, I'm taking a sprinkle on Hasan's submission prop at +500 odds. A knockout is more likely, but Saikia's willingness to put himself on his back and engage in ill-advised grappling exchanges leaves the door open for submissions in a way that's not quite priced in.
Prediction: Hasan Round 1 (T)KO
Billy's Bet: Hasan Sub +500 (FanDuel)
Lightweight: Fabricio Escarrega (-135) vs. Abe Alsaghir (+114)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
The other closely lined fight on Week 1 features two promising prospects with impressive resumes, but very questionable levels of competition.
I'll start with the underdog, Abe Alsaghir. Training primarily out of Detroit Jiu Jitsu Academy in Michigan, Alsaghir is a hybrid grappler/MMA fighter who is still listed as a purple belt, despite having some gold medals at black belt-level competitions here in the Michigan grappling scene. He's 8-0 as a pro MMA fighter following a 6-0 amateur career, with all but one win coming inside the distance.
The problem is who he's fought. Just three of those wins came against fighters more than one win above .500, and all three of those opponents were at least 39. The most notable name was UFC veteran Drew Fickett, whom Alsaghir submitted last summer — more than 18 years after the 45-year-old last competed in the Octagon. He then followed that up with a knockout win over 40-year-old Juan Porto, who is 1-4 since 2019. All of these wins have also come for Michigan-based Legends of Combat, a promotion whose champions seem to largely all hail from the same gym.
None of that is his fault, of course. Alsaghir can only fight those put in front of him. His tape is somewhat impressive, especially once fights hit the ground. On the feet, he's patient but relatively limited, typically throwing single, heavy shots from range that seem largely intended to force a clinch. If they happen to land clean and knock his opponent out, it's a bonus, but either closing the distance or inducing his opponents to grab on is the primary goal.
He does have natural power, though, despite his relatively small size for the lightweight division. He finished Porto with a short left hand from the clinch, notably one of the few shots in that fight he didn't load up on.
I couldn't find any evidence of a wrestling background, but his grappling highlight reels show plenty of takedowns, which is arguably more difficult and impressive without the ability to set them up with strikes. Much of that is also a function of his athletic ability more than elite technique, but that can go a long way.
Mexico's Fabrizio Escarrega also has a somewhat padded 9-1 pro record, with just one win over an opponent more than two fights over .500. To his credit, that opponent, Adriano Nunes, was 33 and still an active fighter. It's also worth noting that his lone loss is listed as via arm injury. I can't find any tape to see if that was more of a freak accident or something caused by his opponent like a blocked kick or armbar, but there's a strong possibility he wasn't truly "beaten."
Escarrega starched an 8-2 opponent in under a minute this February to earn his DWCS shot, blitzing forward with punches in combination. That's a somewhat similar striking style as Alsaghir, though the Mexican favorite throws with much more volume but less power.
He's the more polished striker overall, investing in leg kicks at range in some of his fights, and working behind a jab (or something like it) before swinging wildly for the fences. While not exactly a defensive wizard, he's a bit more interested in defending himself than Alsaghir, though his hands tend to drop once he starts in on combinations.
Clips of Escarrega grappling are rare, though he seems at least moderately capable, though I'd expect Alsaghir to do much better work on the canvas. That's not enough for me to feel confident in either side of this matchup, though.
Instead, I'm taking the under 1.5 rounds in what I expect to be a car crash of a fight. Alsaghir is more athletic and could certainly land an early home run; Escarrega could overwhelm him with volume, or we could see some wild grappling exchanges. Neither man has ever really been pushed or tested defensively, so odds are somebody will crack.
The best line is -106 at FanDuel, and I'd take it to -115.
Prediction: Alsaghir via Knockout
Billy's Bet: Under 1.5 Rounds -106 (FanDuel)
Heavyweight: Anthony Wint (-750) vs. Matt Adams (+525)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:40 p.m. ET
Do you like your heavyweight fighters to be former NFL players? Not as much as Dana White does.
Anthony Wint is the next hyper-athletic former NFL player to make the transition to MMA, joining a fairly lackluster list that includes Greg Hardy and Austen Lane — though if we count fighters who made practice squads, the list also adds Josh Hokit, Gable Steveson, and training camp invitee Brock Lesnar.
Unlike Hardy and Lane — and like the latter group to various extents — Wint did wrestle in high school and was a state qualifier, so he had some combat sports background before making the switch. He also looks fairly comfortable on the feet, but I would too if I was built like Wint and got to beat up chubby local heavyweights. His best opponent was 6-2 Jamahal Tatum, whom he defeated for the Fury FC heavyweight title in just 37 seconds, but Tatum was at a huge athletic disadvantage and never really had a chance.
As far as his ceiling, it's a relatively open question as to whether Wint will have the skills to compete with higher-level heavyweights. His athletic ability should get him to the rankings fairly quickly, but that's not saying much in a very thin division.
Unfortunately for our Tuesday night entertainment (unless you like squash matches), Matt "Bad" Adams seems like precisely the type of fighter Wint is destined to run through. Adams is certainly more skilled, but has what could be generously described as a "man on the street" build. He's lost to every opponent he's faced with a record better than 2-0, and was also knocked out in a bare-knuckle boxing fight. He's actually the more credentialed wrestler, but Wint's size/speed/strength combination will likely make that a moot point.
Wint's knockout prop is -350 and his Round 1 odds are -200, both a bit too long for my tastes. The latter would be my choice if I had to have something on this prefight, and Adams live in the semi-unlikely event he survives Round 1 is also on the table. Outside of that, it's a pass from me.
Prediction: Wint in Round 1
Billy's Bet: Pass
