Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Alvarez Odds
| Njokuani Odds | +245 |
| Alvarez Odds | -305 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-135/+105) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 8:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 330 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 330 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Alvarez prediction for UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Two dangerous and volatile welterweights will meet in the octagon at UFC 330 in what should be one of the more entertaining clashes of the night. Joel Alvarez will take on Chidi Njokuani as both men will be looking to rebound from losses earlier this year.
Alvarez is stepping in on two weeks notice for this bout, and while the oddsmakers seem confident in his skillset prevailing, I am going to make the case they have priced the former lightweight as too large of a favorite given the style each brings into this fight.
Here's my Njokuani vs. Alvarez pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Njokuani | Alvarez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-12 | 23-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:14 | 7:43 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 80" | 77" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/31/1988 | 03/02/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.16 | 4.53 |
| SS Accuracy | 61% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.32 | 3.03 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 0 | 0.18 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 33% |
| TD Def | 75% | 46% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 1.1 |
As mentioned, Joel Alvarez is a former 155-pounder and one of his greatest edges in the lightweight division was that he enjoyed a distinguishable size advantage each time he stepped into the cage. Standing at 6’3,’’ some might even go as far as to say he was a size bully. Alvarez brings a highly dangerous and well-rounded skillset to the octagon, but I have yet to really be impressed with his transition to welterweight and I am not certain his power has or will translate to the higher weight class.
While he has only been credited with one knockout loss, I still have questions when it comes to the durability of Alvarez. He built his career fighting smaller men and now he will have to prove his merit against a fighter in Njokuani who possesses the reach advantage over him and stands the same height.
Njokuani thrives when he can fight with a measured pace at kickboxing range, but there will certainly be openings for him as Alvarez has no choice but to press forward to close the distance.
Alvarez is not a bad striker by any means, but he would be playing right into the hands of Njokuani if he allows the fight to play out in such a manner. Njokuani may have the statistical edge in significant strikes per minute, but make no mistake, Alvarez has the ability to turn up the volume and push the pace if he needs to – and this is a matchup he should elect to do just that.
If Alvarez can get Njokuani to oblige him in a high-paced brawl, the oddsmakers will look justified in hanging such a price on the former lightweight. However, I have my doubts that it is going to be as simple as pressing Njokuani against the cage to initiate clinch work.
Alvarez is slick enough to threaten a submission while both men are standing, but dragging Njokuani to the mat will prove to be highly difficult. Alvarez’s takedown efficiency sits at 33% for his career and he very rarely even looks to wrestle. However, he must find a way to close the distance. Not only would that break the rhythm of Njokuani as a striker but it would wear down the 37 year-old more quickly, as well.
It would not be surprising to see a slow start for Alvarez in the early going, as he acclimates to the distance and timing of Njokuani before taking over in the second round and beyond. With that said, Njokuani was able to out-land his most recent opponent, Carlos Leal, at distance over the course of the final ten minutes of their bout.
Cutting the weight needed to make welterweight has seemed to have assisted in calming Njokuani’s stamina concerns. The former middleweight can be dangerous in the clinch if that is Alvarez’s preferred tactical avenue for attempting to wear on him. If Alvarez cannot simply find a way to get this fight to the mat, I would line this fight much closer than the current odds.
Njokuani has been taken down in three consecutive fights but he still boasts a 75% defensive rate over the course of his career. Alvarez does not have the pure offensive wrestling ability the likes of Jake Matthews; so while Alvarez by submission has the shortest odds in the method of victory market, he’d likely have to find the makings of a choke from a standing position.
Njokuani vs. Alvarez Pick, Prediction
I will be taking two positions in this fight as I understand each fighter’s history of violence. No matter which of these two ends up getting the type of fight they want, they will be very live to finish their opponent.
Only having to pay a little bit of juice for the fight not to start round three has value, considering all six of Njokuani’s fights that ended inside the distance lasted fewer than ten minutes. I will be playing this position to win one unit of profit and would be play up to -150.
I will also be playing Njokuani on the moneyline, for an additional opportunity to win two more units of profit. It will not be an easy task dragging him to the mat, and I give him the edge as a striker whenever the fight is playing out with both men standing. I would play the Njokuani moneyline down to +230.
John's Picks: Fight to start round 3 NO -132 (FanDuel) | Chidi Njokuani +275 (BetMGM)
