Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline Odds
| Ricci Odds | +360 |
| Kline Odds | -470 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-375/+270) |
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma |
| Bout Time | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC OKC odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC OKC with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline prediction for UFC OKC on Saturday, July 18, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
he main card on Paramount+ features a strawweight showdown between Top 15 fighters Fatima Kline and Tabatha Ricci. Kline, who was initially slated to face Amanda Ribas, will now meet Ricci on roughly four weeks' notice.
It's not a huge stylistic shift for Kline, who is currently amidst a three-fight win streak under the UFC banner. Ricci, on the other hand, is coming off a loss to former title challenger Virna Jandiroba and will be rolling the dice on herself as a decent underdog in this spot.
Here's my Ricci vs. Kline pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Ricci | Kline | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-4 | 9-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:01 | 13:01 |
| Height | 5'1" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 115 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 61" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/21/1995 | 7/12/2000 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.00 | 5.01 |
| SS Accuracy | 37% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.83 | 2.71 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.51 | 2.02 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 58% |
| TD Def | 65% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0 |
From a style perspective, this is a battle between two Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts who have steadily been rounding out their striking with the rest of their MMA game.
Ricci, who also carries a black belt in judo in her back pocket, has really leaned into her boxing since teaming up with her boyfriend, noted pro boxer Callum Walsh.
Although Ricci could use a bit more kicks in her arsenal, her fundamental boxing has been steadily improving, showing better balance to boot. Ricci will also incorporate more southpaw looks to mix things up, but her defense suffers from that stance, as fighting lefty mainly seems to highlight how right-hand dependent her striking can be.
To Ricci's credit, she has gotten better about using her right hand to help create takedown entries. And despite Ricci not having the best takedown finish rate on even the best of entries, the Brazilian does a decent job of scoring with strikes like elbows and the like from closed quarters.
Ricci also offers some solid work from topside when able to ground fights in her favor and can finish with an opportunistic armbar if given the chance. It would be smart for Ricci to pursue grappling against a lengthy foe like Kline, but controlling the American does not appear to be an easy task at this weight class.
Long and large for the division, Kline is a shifty striker who embraces the art of eight limbs.
Whether Kline is working out of orthodox or southpaw, the New York native is not shy about setting up hard kicks and knees off of straight punches. When feeling in stride, Kline has shown the ability to both take and create angles, but her interplay off the jab is genuinely the best part of her game standing.
Kline is also competent in the clinch when it comes to everything from head position to elbows, hardwired to strike off the breaks that which will serve her well in this fight. Kline also has a knack for fishing out takedowns and shows an aggressive positional jiu-jitsu and ground-and-pound when working from topside.
Kline can also scramble when she needs to, but she'll need to be mindful about giving anything silly away to an opportunist like Ricci.
Ricci vs. Kline Pick, Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the American fighter, listing Kline -430 and Ricci +320 as of this writing.
Considering the popularity of Ricci, I'm actually surprised that more bettors aren't biting on Ricci's fat and juicy plus-money betting line.
Even in fights where she probably should have lost (e.g., Tecia Pennington and arguably Angela Hill as well), we've seen judges award Ricci rounds she has no business winning for reasons that we can only imagine. For that reason, I don't blame anyone for playing the middle with the +3.5 points handicap on Ricci, or just treating this like a dog or pass spot altogether.
However, me being an admitted Ricci hater aside, I genuinely believe she's been overinflated for some time. You could argue that Ricci should be 5-6 in the UFC if the judges properly adjudicated the previously-mentioned fights against Hill and Pennington correctly.
More importantly, I don't believe her style or stature matches up well with Kline, who is a prospect that I've been incredibly high on since before she even got to the UFC. In fact, I suspect that Kline's kicks, knees and propensity to strike off of breaks could earn her a finish in this fight.
Aside from Ricci getting finished the last time she took a fight on short notice, bigger fighters who can kick and jab – regardless of readiness or weight class – have traditionally wreaked havoc on the defenses of Ricci (who has been rocked in multiple instances by shots and scenarios that are similar to what Kline offers).
For that reason, I believe that finish props and round props are the only things with any value on the Kline side.
I'll be playing Kline's inside the distance prop (which I think is good if you can get anything within striking range of 3-1 odds), and will also be sprinkling on her to win in rounds two and three.
Dan's Picks: Kline Inside the Distance +310 (FanDuel)
