Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 321 (Saturday, October 25)

Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane Odds

Check out the Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane prediction for UFC 321on Saturday, October 25, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Etihad Arena on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi for a 13-fight card, featuring a Heavyweight title bout between current champion Tom Aspinall and former title challenger and interim champion Ciryl Gane.

Aspinall won the interim belt off Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 295 and defended it against Curtis Blaydes at UFC 304. He was later elevated to undisputed champion when Jon Jones retired in June 2025. However, Saturday will mark his first time actively fighting for the undisputed title. The Englishman owns an 8-1 promotional record, with his only loss coming from a knee injury in his first fight against Blaydes.

Gane holds a 10-2 promotional record, with his only losses coming in title fights against Jones and Francis Ngannou. His most recent win, over Alexander Volkov, was a controversial split — 19 of 20 media scorecards and 89% of fans scored the bout for the Russian.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 321 Main Event on Saturday and use those factors to bet on these Heavyweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 4:30 p.m. ET (1:30 p.m. PT) on Saturday.

Here's my Aspinall vs. Gane pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Aspinall is the bigger man — standing an inch taller and weighing in 10 pounds heavier than Gane on Friday — but the Frenchman has a three-inch reach advantage, which could prove crucial in the distance striking exchanges.

On paper, Gane is the more efficient striker, outlanding opponents by 3.2 significant strikes per minute compared to the champion's 2.3.

Still, Aspinall has accumulated those stats in just 14:21 of total UFC cage time — finishing opponents in an average of two minutes — with his total fight time right around Gane's average fight time (14:15).

Aspinall has never finished an opponent past the seven-minute mark, and he lost the only two bouts (one via heel hook, another via DQ) that extended to the midway point of the second round. He's swift for the division — with speed and movement more comparable to a middleweight — but it's highly doubtful that he can maintain that level of explosiveness into the championship rounds. If he can, he's likely the Heavyweight GOAT.

As a result, many analysts suspect that if Gane can weather the early storm — as few have against Aspinall — he should be able to take over with superior cardio, experience, and technical striking from distance as the fight reaches the championship rounds.

Aspinall is the better boxer, with faster hands, whereas Gane offers a more diverse array of kicks while fighting behind a long jab.

Still, Aspinall brings a significant grappling upside to this matchup — his father was a jiu-jitsu instructor, and he comes from a grappling background. We've seen Aspinall run through opponents (Alexander Volkov and Andrei Arlovski in particular) when he proactively grapples, and we've also seen Gane controlled (by Francis Ngannou) or submitted (by Jones) when opponents put him on his back. Aspinall has controlled 100% of grappling positions against fellow UFC Heavyweights, compared to 53% for Gane. Moreover, we've seen fight IQ mistakes from Gane in scrambles, as he has unsuccessfully attempted heel hooks and put himself on his back against both Ngannou and Volkov.

Lastly, while Gane likely has the cardio advantage over Aspinall, I prefer the latter's chin and striking defense (65% vs. 61%) in close quarters. Gane was knocked down by Tai Tuivasa and has absorbed clean punches in exchanges in other fights, including his win over an aging Junior dos Santos.

While I view Aspinall as the more dangerous striker in the early rounds, I expect him to proactively grapple in this matchup — as Jones did against Gane and as Aspinall did against Volkov — and look to finish the fight from top position, where he should have his most significant skill advantage.

If Aspinall is unable to finish the fight early, however, as he has done with the vast majority of his opponents, I would look to bet on Gane live anytime after Round 1.

Aspinall vs. Gane Pick, Prediction

I projected Tom Aspinall as a -280 favorite (73.7% implied) in this fight, and I don't project an edge on either side of the moneyline; I would need closer to +300 to back the underdog, Gane. I projected the fight to reach a decision 13% of the time (+669 implied odds) and it don't show value on either side of the total either.

However, I project an edge on Aspinall to win by submission (+239 projected, listed at +310), and I would also place a Same Game Parlay (SGP) with Aspinall and the Under 1.5 Rounds at any plus-money price, rather than betting his odds to win in Round 1 (+170). Proactively grappling is Aspinall's path of least resistance in this fight, and his finishing equity should be front-loaded, as he has never finished an opponent past the 69-second mark of the second round.

If Gane survives the first five minutes, you can begin considering his live moneyline — I might wait until the midpoint of Round 2.

Sean's Pick: SGP: Tom Aspinall & Under 1.5 Rounds (+112 at BallyBet) | Tom Aspinall wins by Submission (+310 at BallyBet) | Ciryl Gane Live Anytime After Round 1

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