UFC 266 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Cody Brundage vs. Nick Maximov (Saturday, September 25)

UFC 266 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Cody Brundage vs. Nick Maximov (Saturday, September 25) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured (L-R): Cody Brundage and Nick Maximov.

Cody Brundage vs. Nick Maximov Odds

Brundage Odds
+112
Maximov Odds
-132
Over/Under
2.5 (-112 / -112)
Venue
T-Mobile Arena
Time
Approx. 7 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN+
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute UFC odds here.

Prospects Nick Maximov and Cody Brundage will face off in the third fight on Saturday’s UFC 266 card. Below I preview the betting odds and break down the matchup for this middleweight fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can also check out my projections for the entire slate. 

Tale of the Tape

Brundage Maximov
Record 5-1 6-0
Avg. Fight Time 2:23 15:00
Height 6’0″ 6’0″
Weight (pounds) 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach (inches) 72″ 76″
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Date of birth 5/16/94 12/23/97
Sig Strikes Per Min 7.97 2.47
SS Accuracy 82% 58%
SS Absorbed Per Min 6.29 0.33
SS Defense 6% 58%
Take Down Avg 6.29 2.47
TD Acc 33% 40%
TD Def 0% 0%
Submission Avg 0.0 0.0

Brundage is a late replacement for Karl Roberson, who pulled out of this fight due to medical complications from his weight cut.

Even though Roberson is the more experienced UFC fighter and Brundage was slated to make his second appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series after losing to William Knight last September, the short-notice replacement may be a more difficult stylistic matchup for Nick Maximov.

Maximov earned his UFC contract with a Contender Series win last November. He’s primarily a grappler who’s looked green in the standup, an area where Brundage — a collegiate wrestler — may have a clear advantage.

Suppose Brundage can counter-wrestle and keep this fight standing. In that case, he might look like the favorite, and the betting market agrees with that assessment. His line was quickly brought down closer to a pick’em after opening at +275 (26.7% implied), which is a dramatic adjustment.

Brundage vs. Maximov Pick

Late-replacements win at a 37% clip in the UFC, at average odds of +181 (35.6%). Hence, the short-notice angle is overrated and Brundage was already in camp for an upcoming bout anyway.

The moneyline is no longer bettable and based upon the early prop odds, Brundage to win by decision (projected +280) is the only prop wager that offers value.

The Pick: Cody Brundage wins by Decision (+310)

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