Updated UFC 272 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jalin Turner vs. Jamie Mullarkey (Saturday, March 5)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Jamie Mullarkey.
- Jalin Turner is favored in a highly anticipated lightweight bout against Jamie Mullarkey.
- The 6-foot-3 Turner has won three straight, although Mullarkey is winner of consecutive fights coming into tonight.
- Sean Zerillo breaks down the fight and makes his betting picks below.
Jalin Turner vs. Jamie Mullarkey Odds
Two promising lightweights face off in the UFC 272 featured prelim, when 26-year-old Jalin Turner faces the 27-year-old Jamie Mullarkey.
Turner has won three straight in the UFC, all finishes, while Mullarkey has two straight wins and is coming off a Performance of the Night bonus in October when he beat Devonte Smith.
Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Turner | Mullarkey | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-5 | 14-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:35 | 9:39 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 156 lbs. | 155.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 74" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/18/95 | 8/17/94 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.20 | 3.03 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.12 | 4.45 |
| SS Defense | 45% | 45% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.98 | 3.50 |
| TD Acc | 75% | 32% |
| TD Def | 78% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 1.9 | 0.4 |
Turner is one of my favorite fighters to watch. "The Tarantula" is massive at lightweight (6-foot-3, 77-inch reach) and is finally figuring out how to use his physical gifts on the feet. He's mighty powerful, and his grappling remains underrated, despite consecutive submission wins in his past two fights.
Mullarkey is finally fighting a bigger man, and he is seemingly outgunned skill for skill, so long as Turner remains fresh. Jalin should be particularly dangerous in the first round, but that round prop (+300) doesn't entice me. I would need closer to +400 to play that line.
Both fighters are extremely hittable (45% striking defense) and are 1-4 combined on the scorecards in their careers, but I think that the total is a bit low for a Lightweight matchup, standing at 1.5 rounds.
I project this fight to go the distance 38% of the time (+165 implied), but more importantly Mullarkey can compete at the UFC level. At the same time, Turner's recent opponents have been more regional-level talent.
Turner is dangerous early, but Mullarkey has shown excellent durability during his career (particularly after pairing up as teammates with the first man to knock him out in Alexander Volkanovski) and the ability to navigate his way back from early deficits.
Turner vs. Mullarkey Pick
If Turner cannot secure a Round 1 stoppage but expends a decent amount of energy, I would look to bet Mullarkey live around +200.
I'm not interested in a pre-fight wager on Mullarkey (projected +122) when he is in the most danger early in the fight.
Bets
- Over 1.5 Rounds (-150, 0.5u)
- Jamie Mullarkey live after Round 1
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