Updated UFC 272 Odds, Pick, Prediction for Marina Rodriguez vs. Yan Xiaonan (Saturday, March 5)
Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Marina Rodriguez.
- Marina Rodriguez is favored in a top-five strawweight matchup with Yan Xiaonan at UFC 272.
- The winner could be in line for a title shot, and Rodriguez has momentum entering this fight.
- Sean Zerillo breaks down the fight and makes his betting pick below.
Marina Rodriguez vs. Yan Xiaonan Odds
Marina Rodriguez and Yan Xiaonan face off at UFC 272 in what appears to be a potential No. 1 contender’s fight in the women’s strawweight division.
Rodriguez has won three straight, including two performance bonuses, over Amanda Ribas, Michelle Waterson and Mackenzie Dern. Xiaonan, meanwhile, is coming off her first UFC loss to Carla Esparza after six straight wins to start her career in the promotion.
Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Rodriguez | Xiaonan | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-1-2 | 13-2 (1 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:53 | 14:00 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 116 lbs. | 116 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 63" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/29/87 | 6/16/89 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.05 | 5.95 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.00 | 3.61 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.22 | 0.92 |
| TD Acc | 33% | 75% |
| TD Def | 67% | 65% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.0 |
This bout is a potential strawweight title eliminator, and I do believe that Rodriguez is the goods (I bet her to hold the 115-pound strap (at +2000) at the end of the calendar year). This is the first of potentially two or three steps toward cashing that ticket.
However, I had initially expected to back Xiaonan as a sizable underdog in this spot. Still, after digging deeper into her tape, I decided that she's unlikely to find her way into clean boxing exchanges in the pocket that she desires. Rodriguez will either keep her at a distance with kicks or get inside and dominate in the clinch.
I expect to see a high-paced kickboxing match (5.05 strikes landed per minute for Rodriguez, 5.95 for Yan) where both women have a potential grappling upside. How you see the grappling may determine whether you think Xiaonan is worth betting.
I think Rodriguez is the superior grappler, both offensively and defensively, in addition to being the bigger hitter and more technical striker with the ability to dictate where the exchanges take place.
Rodriguez vs. Xiaonan Pick
I don't see value on either side of the moneyline, but I expect this fight to go to a decision at a high clip (listed -225, projected -326). That said, I also show value on Rodriguez to win by decision (projected -111) at any plus money price (+111 at Caesars).
Yan's moneyline may look like value the whole way, but Rodriguez likely takes a clean 30-27 or 29-28 decision at a high percentage (unless she secures a finish first) if Yan cannot secure takedowns.
Bets
- Marina Rodriguez wins by Decision (+100, 0.5u)
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