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Updated UFC 272 Odds, Pick, Prediction for Maryna Moroz vs. Mariaya Agapova (Saturday, March 5)

Updated UFC 272 Odds, Pick, Prediction for Maryna Moroz vs. Mariaya Agapova (Saturday, March 5) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Maryna Moroz.

  • Former teammates Maryna Moroz and Mariaya Agapova square off at UFC 272 tonight.
  • Agapova is favored against the Ukrainian, who used to train at American Top Team with her opponent.
  • Sean Zerillo breaks down the fight and makes his betting picks below.

Maryna Moroz vs. Mariaya Agapova Odds

Moroz Odds
+155
Agapova Odds
-190
Over/Under
2.5 (-185 / +150)
Venue
T-Mobile Arena
Time
Approx. 8 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN/ESPN+
Odds via BetMGM. Get the latest UFC odds here.

Maryna Moroz goes for her third straight win in the UFC women’s flyweight division at UFC 272 against Mariya Agapova.

Following two losses to veterans to Angela Hill and Carla Esparza, the Ukrainian Moroz won a pair of decisions against Sabina Mazo and Mayra Bueno Silva, the latter of which earned her a Fight of the Night bonus. Agapova is 2-1 in the UFC with a pair of submission wins over Hannah Cifers and Mazo.

Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight’s fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape

Moroz Agapova
Record 10-3 10-2
Avg. Fight Time 13:19 8:48
Height 5’7″ 5’6″
Weight (pounds) 125.5 lbs. 126 lbs.
Reach (inches) 67″ 68″
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Date of birth 9/8/91 4/7/97
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.09 5.20
SS Accuracy 31% 53%
SS Absorbed Per Min 4.15 4.63
SS Defense 53% 53%
Take Down Avg 0.56 0.85
TD Acc 18% 66%
TD Def 47% 33%
Submission Avg 0.4 0.8

For my money, Agapova vs. Moroz is Saturday’s best grudge match, and I would have loved to see this fight as the main card opener. It should be a Fight of the Night contender.

I’ll save you the backstory — google that on your own time — but just know that there is legitimate hatred here between these former teammates.

Naturally, I’m betting a decision prop in a fight that could be extremely violent.

Moroz, who’s Ukraine’s Olympic boxing coach, can keep this fight competitive on the feet with Agapova, a fluid, powerful, and high ceiling striker who is six years younger but has shown a wide degree of variance in her performances.

Moroz is technical on the feet and likely has the grappling upside here, too. She has shown a greater urgency for takedowns (17 attempts) in her past two fights — following a two-fight losing streak, and Agapova’s takedown defense (33%) and getup game-rank amongst her lesser skills.

I’m very high on Agapova’s long-term potential, but she has shown questionable fight IQ and cardio in the past (losing to Shana Dobson as a -1500 favorite). I don’t see enough of a gap in any area of this matchup — aside from power/aggression — where Agapova has a significant skill advantage to justify her price tag.

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Moroz vs. Agapova Pick

If Agapova comes out guns blazing and cannot secure a finish, she will likely wilt after the first round based upon prior results. I would look to bet Moroz live after Round 1.

I would need something closer to +170 to bet Moroz pre-fight (projected +148) since Agapova should win the opening frame. That said, I show value on Moroz to win by decision (projected +231, listed +400 at Caesars) and made that my only pre-fight position. I would bet that prop down to +300.

Bets

  • Maryna Moroz wins by Decision (+400, 0.25u)
  • Moroz Live after Round 1

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