UFC 288 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Movsar Evloev vs. Diego Lopes: Any Bets for Late-notice Booking? (Saturday, May 6)

UFC 288 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Movsar Evloev vs. Diego Lopes: Any Bets for Late-notice Booking? (Saturday, May 6) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC featherweight Movsar Evloev of Russia

  • Heavy favorite Movsar Evloev meets very late replacement Diego Lopes on Saturday's UFC 288 main card.
  • Sportsbooks were slow to open markets for Evloev vs. Lopes, but options are now available.
  • Below, Sean Zerillo breaks down the fight and explains why he's taking a cautious approach.

Movsar Evloev vs. Diego Lopes Odds

Evloev Odds
Lopes Odds
2.5 (-115 / -115)
Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey
10:30 p.m. ET
ESPN+ Pay-per-view
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings

A fight-week card change has left Movsar Evloev with a new opponent as he welcomes Diego Lopes to the octagon on the UFC 288 preliminary card.

The late booking left oddsmakers scrambling to put together marketing betting markets.

In the meantime, are there any bets for what is a wildly lopsided matchup.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time15:0010:12
Weight (pounds)145 lbs.145 lbs.
Reach (inches)72"72"
Date of birth2/11/199412/30/1994
Sig Strikes Per Min4.361.96
SS Accuracy46%50%
SS Absorbed Per Min2.794.31
SS Defense63%40%
Take Down Avg4.830.00
TD Acc50%0%
TD Def71%25%
Submission Avg0.34.4

Evloev was initially supposed to face Bryce Mitchell but will draw a short-notice debutant in Lopes, a Brazilian who lost a 2021 Contender Series bout to the exciting Joanderson Brito (2-1 in the promotion).

Evloev is undefeated (16-0), but the UFC has had difficulty promoting him because he is yet to secure a finish since coming over from M-1 Global in Russia. You rarely see a 90% implied favorite lined at a pick'em price to win inside the distance.

Still, Evloev beat an extremely durable Dan Ige from pillar to post in his last matchup; he would have finished a far less durable opponent.

Evloev may have difficulty submitting Lopes, a jiu-jitsu whiz, even if he has extended top control, so a knockout may be the most optimal path to a performance bonus.

Evloev vs. Lopes Pick

Evloev should be able to land takedowns – and dominate the fight from top position – but that might also play into Lopes' strengths; he has an excellent offensive submission game off his back.

I'm still waiting on more books to open prop markets for this fight, but as of Friday, it seems like a clear pass spot from a betting perspective.

The Pick: Pass

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