UFC 291 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Matthew Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic: 3 Bets for Fashionable Favorite (Saturday, July 29)

UFC 291 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Matthew Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic: 3 Bets for Fashionable Favorite (Saturday, July 29) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC welterweight Matthew Semelsberger

Matthew Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic Odds

Semelsberger Odds
Medic Odds
1.5 rounds (-135 / +105)
Delta Center in Salt Lake City
Start Time
7:30 p.m. ET
Odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings

The UFC 291 early preliminary card should get a boost of entertainment with Matthew Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic.

The welterweight clash features the sometimes-inconsistent but always-entertaining Semelsberger against fellow slugger Medic, who returns from a yearlong layoff to meet one of his toughest tests yet.

Let's break down a matchup that has many hardcore fans eager with anticipation.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time11:194:00
Weight (pounds)169.5 lbs.170.5 lbs.
Reach (inches)75"71"
Date of birth11/23/19924/25/1993
Sig Strikes Per Min4.058.14
SS Accuracy43%66%
SS Absorbed Per Min4.213.76
SS Defense56%59%
Take Down Avg1.160.00
TD Acc70%0%
TD Def52%66%
Submission Avg0.20.0

Medic is taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for Yohan Lainesse. And a short notice fight at elevation in Salt Lake City – for a competitor with already suspect cardio – seems like a less-than-ideal situation.

The betting market tends to agree; Semelsberger opened as a -140 favorite (58.3% implied) for this fight and has ballooned to -205 (67.2%) or higher as of writing.

Medic falls into the early-finisher archetype (no fights beyond the fight-minute mark) and comes from the low-level Alaska FC regional scene, but he is well-rounded and has moved to train with a solid camp at Kings MMA.

I expect him to be his typically dangerous self early on in this fight and to potentially have the speed and skill advantage over Semelsberger, who owns a four-inch reach advantage.

However, Semelsberger has proven himself to be highly durable – with a solid gas tank – and I would expect him to rally as Medic tires the longer the fight goes.

Both fighters carry power, but while Medic is the more talented martial artist, Semelsberger has the better hardware. And I expect that to prove the difference, particularly at elevation with his opponent taking a short-notice fight.

Semelsberger vs. Medic Pick

From a pre-fight betting perspective, I don't technically project value on this fight – in the moneyline, total, or winning method markets.

Based on the cardio dynamic, I would bet Semelsberger to win in Round 2 (+540) or Round 3 (+1000).

Alternatively, or in addition, wait to live bet Semelsberger after Round 1.

The Picks: Matthew Semelsberger wins in Round 2 (+450, 0.15u) at DraftKings | Semelsberger wins in Round 3 (+900, 0.1u) at DraftKings | Semelsberger Live after Round 1

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