UFC 295 Odds, Pick & Prediction for John Castaneda vs. Kyung Ho Kang: 3 Bets for Early Prelim (Saturday, November 11)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC bantamweight John Castaneda
John Castaneda vs. Kyung Ho Kang Odds
Two familiar bantamweights will meet in a catchweight clash with John Castaneda vs. Kyung Ho Kang on Saturday at UFC 295.
The early prelim bout features two vets coming off UFC victories – with Castaneda on an overall 3-1 run and Kang on a 4-1 streak.
Here's a look at my UFC 295 prediction for Castaneda vs. Kang.
Tale of the Tape
| Castaneda | Ho Kang | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-6 | 19-9 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:48 | 12:06 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'9" |
| Weight | 137.6 pounds | 138 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 73" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/18/1991 | 9/9/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.2 | 3.1 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.80 | 2.91 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 57% |
| TD Def | 71% | 70% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.9 |
Kang is both the taller (three inches) and longer fighter (two inches) in a striking matchup against Castaneda, who is four years his junior and has better cardio.
Castaneda will apply pressure throughout while avoiding getting clipped by Kang, who also has the power advantage and higher finishing upside.
Still, Kang typically excels when he can control opponents and blanket them for extended stretches or look to take their back rather than counter-striking for 15 minutes.
Castaneda will keep him on the back foot and make him uncomfortable with different looks as he retreats.
And the aggressor should provide superior optics for the judges down the stretch.
I'd expect Kang to do his best work early before Castaneda's pressure eventually wears him down and the fight's momentum swings toward "Sexi Mexi" – as it did in his win over Miles Johns.
Castaneda vs. Ho Kang Pick
Depending upon the book, I like Castaneda on the moneyline (up to -148), the Fight to Go the Distance (up to -160), in addition to Castaneda to win by decision (projected +149) as a round-robin piece.
You can also look to add more to Castaenda's moneyline live after Round 1.
The Picks:
- John Castaneda (-130, 0.25u) at Caesars
- Fight Goes to Decision (-154, 0.25u) at FanDuel
- John Castaneda Live after Round 1
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