UFC 295 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts: Take This +500 Underdog (Saturday, November 11)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC lightweight Roosevelt Roberts
Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts Odds
Mateusz Rebecki will remain on the UFC 295 preliminary card after Roosevelt Roberts stepped in as a late replacement earlier in the fight week.
Rebecki initially was slated to fight lightweight Nurullo Aliev, who recently was forced off the card with an injury.
Rebecki, who's won 15 straight fights, now meets Roberts, who went 2-3 in his first UFC stint and returns to the promotion after a pair of regional-show wins and a stint on The Ultimate Fighter 31.
Here's my UFC 295 prediction for Rebecki vs. Roberts, which will be contested at a catchweight of 158 pounds.
Tale of the Tape
| Rebecki | Roberts | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-1 | 12-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:34 | 9:16 |
| Height | 5'7" | 6'2" |
| Weight | 155.8 pounds | 158 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 73" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/3/1992 | 2/11/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.57 | 3.14 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.2 | 3.1 |
| SS Defense | 63% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| TD Acc | 66% | 29% |
| TD Def | 66% | 58% |
| Submission Avg | 1.2 | 0.9 |
Roberts, who went 5-3-1 in his previous UFC stint and 1-1 on the past season of The Ultimate Fighter, returns to the roster on short notice in place of Nurullo Aliev as a significant underdog to Mateusz Rebecki.
Roberts is both the substantially taller (5 inches) and longer fighter (seven inches), but he did miss weight on Friday, which could limit his cardio down the stretch of this bout against an opponent who will look to take him down (58% takedown defense) and smash him on the mat.
Roberts isn't out of place in the grappling. He's a brown belt in jiu-jitsu with a decent repertoire of chokes to slap on an over-aggressive grappler. And he can keep the striking extremely competitive if not win the majority of exchanges with his size advantage.
I'd much rather bet on a fighter like Roberts at a significant number – who is a .500 fighter against UFC competition – than a random short-notice debutant from a regional promotion.
Rebecki vs. Roberts Pick
Typically, I'd want +480 or better to generate an edge of at least 2% on Roberts relative to my projected number (+410).
However, I'm willing to lower that price target to +440 (19.5% implied) to sprinkle Roberts at a 1% edge.
Additionally, consider betting Roberts to win by decision (projected +1038, listed +1200) at a similar edge.
The Pick: Roosevelt Roberts (+500, 0.1u) at Caesars
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